Midwest to be key to White House
Ohio among states that have decisive electoral votes
Monday, August 11, 2008 3:23 AM
By Jack Torry
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH
Who should John McCain choose as his Republican running mate?
WASHINGTON -- They each have the same goal: 270 electoral votes. To get there, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain will take very different roads.
But at the very end, they will meet in the Midwest.
With Obama currently doing well in states having 238 electoral votes and McCain likely to win states with 141, the historic swing states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Missouri will determine the outcome of the presidential race.
Four years ago, President Bush's slender victory in Ohio over Democrat John Kerry gave the Republican a second term. Although Obama could conceivably amass 270 without carrying Ohio, it is virtually impossible for McCain to lose the state and win the presidency.
"I still think it comes down to Ohio," said Kevin Madden, spokesman for Bush's Midwestern campaign four years ago and a senior adviser to the presidential campaign of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney this year. "Name me a Republican who has won the presidency without winning Ohio."
Of course, none ever has.
Obama has an easier path to the presidency; he could win a handful of states that Kerry barely lost in 2004. For example, if Obama wins Virginia, New Mexico and Nevada with their 23 electoral votes, he might not need Ohio's 20. But it would be very difficult for him to lose both Ohio and Michigan and still win.
"The Obama campaign can be looking at a number of states the Republicans won in 2004 and say 'We have a chance of winning those,' " said Herb Asher, a Democrat who is professor emeritus of political science at Ohio State University. "Ohio would be one of those states, but obviously he can look at Virginia, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and maybe Colorado."
Dennis Eckart, a former Democratic congressman from Cleveland and an Obama supporter, said, "McCain does not seem to be expanding the electorate. I don't see (Obama) losing anything Kerry won, and I see him being competitive in states which Kerry lost."
The candidates are devoting substantial time, people and money to Ohio and Michigan. Since June 13, Obama has spent five days campaigning in Ohio and two in Michigan. McCain has campaigned on seven different days in Ohio since June 26 and four in Michigan since July 10.
The two states are crucial because so much of the rest of the country seems already ceded to one candidate or the other. William Carrick, a Democratic consultant in Los Angeles, said private polls show that McCain has no real chance to win California, Oregon and Washington. Obama also is expected to sweep every Northeastern state except New Hampshire.
But Obama has yet to overcome the Democratic weakness in the South that has plagued the party since the height of the Vietnam War and the civil-rights battles of the 1960s. In five of the nine presidential elections since 1972, the Republican nominee has won all 11 states of the Deep South.
"McCain will probably carry all or nearly all of the Southern states," said Merle Black, a professor of political science at Emory University in Atlanta. "Virginia is the best shot for Obama, but McCain would still be the favorite there."
Should McCain win all 161 electoral votes in the South, Obama would need to win 70 percent of the remaining electoral votes across the rest of the country. That places a premium on swing states such as Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, prompting Black to say, "It comes back to the Midwest."
If history is any guide, Obama is the favorite in Pennsylvania while McCain has the edge in Ohio. Democratic presidential candidates have won Pennsylvania in every election since 1992, although their margins of victory are often tantalizingly close for the Republicans.
"I don't see how a Republican wins Pennsylvania this year," said William J. Green, a GOP consultant in Pittsburgh.
Ohio and Michigan may be much closer. McCain's latest round of commercials about Obama's celebrity seems aimed directly at blue-collar workers in both states.
McCain not only is poking fun at Obama, but also portraying himself as tough in two states where "they like tough guys," said Peter Harris, a Democratic consultant and former aide to the late Sen. Howard Metzenbaum, D-Ohio.
"What they're really showing is that he's a schoolyard bully, and Obama is not punching him back," complained Harris, among Democratic strategists who want Obama to respond more aggressively.
McCain could boost his chances of winning Michigan by selecting Romney as his running mate. Romney won the Michigan primary in January and older voters fondly remember his father, George, who served as the state's governor in the 1960s.
"McCain can certainly help himself in this state by picking Romney," said Tom Shields, a Republican consultant in Michigan. But noting that no Republican presidential candidate has won Michigan since 1988, Shields acknowledged that "Michigan has been one those states that teased a lot of Republican candidates and then fallen by the wayside at the end."
Obama has vice presidential options that could help him in traditionally Republican states. He could choose Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., and give Democrats a chance to win that state for the first time since 1964. Or he could turn to Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia.
"You need a state like Virginia to offset those other states," said Mary Anne Marsh, a Democratic consultant in Boston. "Michigan and Pennsylvania, even though they have gone for the Democrats, they're never easy."
Dispatch Washington Bureau Chief Jonathan Riskind contributed to this story.
jtorry@dispatch.com
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