“This reminds me all too much of other recent conflicts that have torn our continent apart, particularly in the Balkans,” said Bernard Kouchner, the French Foreign Minister, yesterday. He was speaking before Georgia reportedly ordered its forces to cease fire and offered to negotiate with Russia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia. But Mr Kouchner's words are an ominous portent for the conflict; and as the former chief UN administrator in Kosovo, he would recognise the signs. These are not only the dismaying images of civilians fleeing from a city under bombardment.They also include Russia's determination to pursue national aggrandisement at the expense of small nations. In 1993, when Boris Yeltsin urged the United Nations to consider Russia as the guarantor of peace and stability in the former Soviet republics, a senior American official asked what was wrong with a “Russian Monroe doctrine” recognising Moscow's lead role in regional affairs. The answer is that Russia evidently interprets its regional interests as allowing it to violate internationally recognised borders.Untimely War aises Infinite Dangers - The Australian editorial
The weight of world opinion should lean as heavily as possible on Russia to force it to cease its vicious attacks on the neighbouring state of Georgia. Everything possible must be done to contain a war that is escalating dangerously and rapidly. In positioning warships to blockade Georgia, which has now withdrawn its troops from South Ossetia, Russia is playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship that has rekindled alarming memories of the Cold War. Russia's attitude brings the underlying geopolitical tension between Russia and the West - what could be termed the frozen Cold War - into sharp focus. The worst-case scenario is that Moscow may be using a local skirmish to cement its grip on its former satellites and to strengthen its hand against NATO. Only a halt to all aggression on both sides can give diplomatic efforts by the US, the EU and the Organisation of Security and Co-operation in Europe a chance to find a negotiated settlement to a long-simmering conflict that has little moral high ground on any side. Russia's use of strategic bombers and ballistic missiles, even outside the South Ossetian conflict zone, is out of all proportion to the reported shelling of Russian peacekeepers by Georgia, which killed 10 troops and wounded 30. Russia yesterday widened its attacks, bombing the Abkhazia rebel region in western Georgia where locals are also pressing for independence.Russia's Cold-war Mentality - Christian Science Monitor editorial
A new Iron Curtain is being drawn around Russia. It's not so impregnable or wide as the Soviet one. But Moscow's willingness to war with NATO-aspirant Georgia sends this clear message to the expanding West: Thus far, and no farther. Given Russia's strength, the West has few options. Neither the US nor any other NATO country will fight Russia over Georgia's two tiny separatist enclaves - South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia invaded South Ossetia Aug. 8 after Georgian troops tried to reassert influence there. Meanwhile, Russia's sending reinforcements to Abkhazia. Both territories have been protected by Russian peacekeepers since the early 1990s, when they broke from Georgia in bloody rebellions. The US is bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Who wants war with Russia over this? Neither does the West have much diplomatic or economic leverage with oil- and gas-rich Russia, whose autocratic regime has broad support from a population satisfied with stability. As Russia's swift and deadly military response in Georgia shows, the West has underestimated - indeed sometimes aggravated - Moscow's fears about growing Western influence eastward.Roots of the Conflict - Anatol Lieven, The Times
Many factors are involved in the present conflict but the central one is straightforward: the majority of the Ossetes living south of the main Caucasus range in Georgia wish to unite with the Ossetes living to the north, in an autonomous republic of the Russian Federation; and the Georgians, regarding South Ossetia as both a legal and an historic part of their national territory, refuse to accept this. Twice in the past century, when the empire to the north weakened and Georgia declared its independence, the southern Ossetes revolted against Georgian rule. It happened in 1918-20, between the collapse of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union’s conquest of Georgia in 1921; and it happened again in our own time with the fall of the Soviet Union.Georgian Conflict Driven by Fear - Peter Wilson, The Australian
The European and US envoys who rushed to Georgia on the weekend to try to end the bloodshed were confronted by one of the deadliest situations in diplomacy - a David versus Goliath tangle in which everybody thinks they are David. The danger of this war comes from the fact that each protagonist is driven not by confidence in their own strength but by the opposite -- fear, insecurity and a belief that they are under threat from a relentless foe. The tiny breakaway region of South Ossetia, with just 70,000 people, and their fellow rebels in Abkhazia, another impoverished region of only 250,000, feel massively outgunned by Georgia's 4.4million people and their US-trained army. For their part, the Georgians feel intimidated by their giant neighbour, Russia, which has long propped up the breakaway regions and is now sending tanks, jets and troops on to Georgian soil. Moscow still views the world through the prism of the Cold War and is convinced it has to make a stand in Georgia against an overwhelmingly powerful and increasingly aggressive Western alliance that it fears is hemming in Russia and stirring up trouble among its neighbours from Serbia and Kosovo to Georgia and Ukraine.Not All Russia's Fault - Charles King, Christian Science Monitor
Following a series of provocative attacks in its secessionist region of South Ossetia late last week, Georgia launched an all-out attempt to reestablish control in the tiny enclave. Russia then intervened by dropping bombs on Georgia to protect the South Ossetians, halt the growing tide of refugees flooding into southern Russia, and aid its own peacekeepers there. Now, the story goes, Russia has at last found a way of undermining Georgia's Western aspirations, nipping the country's budding democracy, and countering American influence across Eurasia. But this view of events is simplistic. American and European diplomats, who have rushed to the region to try to stop the conflict, would do well to consider the broader effects of this latest round of Caucasus bloodletting - and to seek perspectives on the conflict beyond the story of embattled democracy and cynical comparisons with the Prague Spring of 1968. Russia illegally attacked Georgia and imperiled a small and feeble neighbor. But by dispatching his own ill-prepared military to resolve a secessionist dispute by force, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has managed to lead his country down the path of a disastrous and ultimately self-defeating war.10 August
Small Wars Have a Nasty Habit of Getting Bigger - The Times editorial
A small war in the Caucacus would not normally be a cause of growing international concern. The region is only too familiar with conflict and the West would at this stage be more involved in discussing humanitarian aid to the innocent victims of old tribal feuds. But the fact that George W Bush’s picture is widely displayed across Georgia while the face of Vladimir Putin is on equal show in the breakaway enclave of South Ossetia suggests this conflict is not just another minor ethnic squabble and that it may not stay local for too long. The danger in any war on the border of a great power is that others begin to meddle and before anyone can find Tskhinvali, the capital, on the map we have a full-blown crisis. History is full of seemingly minor events - Kosovo and the Falklands to name two recent examples - leading to international showdowns. It is no secret that the recently resurgent Russia has long resented Georgia’s breakaway from the Soviet Union and its blandishments to the West. Its latest bid to join NATO and the European Union is seen in Moscow as a calculated provocation.Return of Cold War Diplomacy - Daily Telegraph editorial
Russia's ruthless attack on Georgia is a dramatic and depressing reminder of the willingness of the Soviet Union (and, before it, imperial Russia) to pursue its foreign policy across the borders of sovereign nations. It is true that Georgia - unlike, say Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968 - walked into a trap. What did it imagine would be Moscow's response to its own assault on Tskhinvali, the capital of the Russian-supported breakaway province of South Ossetia? Did the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, not realise that he was providing his enemy with an excuse not just to invade the rebel province but also to launch air strikes on central Georgia?Lesson on US Need for Russia - Helene Cooper, New York Times
The image of President Bush smiling and chatting with Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin of Russia from the stands of the Beijing Olympics even as Russian aircraft were shelling Georgia outlines the reality of America’s Russia policy. While America considers Georgia its strongest ally in the bloc of former Soviet countries, Washington needs Russia too much on big issues like Iran to risk it all to defend Georgia. And State Department officials made it clear on Saturday that there was no chance the United States would intervene militarily. Mr. Bush did use tough language, demanding that Russia stop bombing. And Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice demanded that Russia “respect Georgia’s territorial integrity.”Georgia's Risk-taker Over the Brink - Thomas de Waal, Guardian
The Caucasus is the kind of place where, when the guns start firing, it's hard to stop them. That is the brutal reality of South Ossetia, where a small conflict is beginning to spread exponentially. Leave aside the geopolitics for the moment and have pity for the people who will suffer most from this, the citizens - mostly ethnic Ossetians but also Georgians - who have already died in their hundreds. It is a tiny and vulnerable place, with no more than 75,000 inhabitants of both nationalities mixed up in a patchwork of villages and one sleepy provincial town in the foothills of the Caucasus. Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili seems to care less about these people than about asserting that they live in Georgian territory. Otherwise he would not on the night of 7-8 August have launched a massive artillery assault on the town of Tskhinvali, which has no purely military targets and whose residents, the Georgians say, lest we forget, are their own citizens. This is a blatant breach of international humanitarian law.9 August
Stopping Russia - Washington Post editorial
The outbreak of fighting between Russia and the former Soviet republic of Georgia was sudden but not surprising. Conflict has been brewing between Moscow and its tiny, pro-Western neighbor for months. The flashpoints are two breakaway Georgian provinces, Abkhazia and South Ossetia -- the latter being the scene of the latest fighting. The skirmishing and shelling around Georgian villages that prompted Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to launch an offensive against the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, may or may not have been a deliberate Russian provocation, to which Russia's tank and air assault was the inevitable follow-up. Russian military probes, always denied b y Moscow, have been frequent in recent years. But certainly the deeper source of tension between the two countries is Russia's insistence on maintaining hegemony in the Caucasus. Georgia's democratically elected government has accepted US military and economic aid, supported the mission in Iraq and pursued NATO membership. Moscow will not tolerate such independence - even by a relatively poor country of just 4.6 million people.Georgia on the Brink - The Times editorial
Yesterday morning Mikhail Saakhashvili, the Georgian President, gave warning that, if reports of Russian armour entering his country were true, it would mean war. They were true. Tanks were crossing the international border from Russia into the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossietia as Mr Saakashvili spoke. He also promised a brief ceasefire to allow the evacuation of wounded civilians. Such ceasefires may come and go. The war may remain officially undeclared. But Russia and its most fervently pro-Western neighbour are now locked in open military conflict.War in the Caucasus - Wall Street Journal editorial
"War has started," Vladimir Putin said yesterday as Georgian and Russian forces fought over the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia. War is certainly what the two countries have seemed to want for some time, and the chances of avoiding a drawn-out conflict now are slim. It's unclear at this stage which side is more at fault for the current fighting. Georgia says it moved on the South Ossetian city of Tskhinvali yesterday after rebels there broke a cease-fire. But President Mikheil Saakashvili has long pledged to retake South Ossetia and another separatist area, Abkhazia, and may have underestimated Moscow's reaction. Within hours, Russian tanks crossed the border to bolster Russian "peacekeepers" who have been stirring up trouble in the two regions. Georgia says Russian airplanes bombed Tskhinvali, reversing some Georgian army gains there, as well as air fields in nonseparatist areas. The Georgian air force claims to have shot down at least five Russian planes. The biggest question now is whether Moscow will simply try to restore the previous status quo in South Ossetia - with Russia and the rebels controlling most of the territory - or go further and crush Georgia while deposing Mr. Saakashvili.The Bear Lashes Out - New York Post editorial
Both attacks probably were timed to coincide with the Summer Olympics in Beijing, whose lavish opening ceremonies yesterday diverted the world's attention. Tempting though it might be to dismiss the dispute as a purely regional affair, the fighting has the potential for grave international repercussions. The Caucasus region is a significant conduit of oil taken from the Caspian Sea - and any disruption of the oil flow almost certainly would halt the welcome recent fall in crude prices. That, in turn, could reverse the recent drop in prices at the gas pumps. Indeed, the signs are ominous: Russia yesterday charged that Georgia is undertaking "ethnic cleansing" in South Ossetia - a claim that Moscow could well use as a justification for a wider invasion. Georgia, in turn, is appealing for help from Washington - which yesterday stressed its support for "Georgia's territorial integrity."War Erupts in Georgia - The Economist
On its own, South Ossetia is unlikely to last long. It is a tiny territory run by Russia’s security forces and a small and nasty clique of local thugs who live off smuggling goods and pocketing Russian aid money. According to a Georgian television channel, some 70% of Tskhinvali had been taken by government forces by the end of Friday morning. It appears that Russia will get heavily involved - Russia's president, Dmitry Medvedev, says that he must protect Russian citizens there. The conflict could now quickly spiral into a war between Russian and Georgia, and engulf Abkhazia, a separatist region on the Black Sea coast in which Russia has much more strategic interest.S. Ossetia Bitterness Turns to Conflict - Steven Eke, BBC News
As heavy clashes are reported in South Ossetia, Russia and Georgia have swapped increasingly angry accusations. Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili has called upon his country to "mobilise" in the face of "a very blunt Russian aggression". Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow had reports of "ethnic cleansing" in villages. Russian tanks have reportedly moved towards the capital of the region, which has been under heavy bombardment from Georgian forces. South Ossetia is a territory one-and-a-half times that of Luxembourg, with an estimated population of some 70,000 people. It is legally part of Georgia, since its self-proclaimed independence has been recognised by no other state, including Russia. Yet its people and their separatist leaders do not want to be part of the Georgian state, in any shape or form.Georgia's Fait Accompli Failed - Matthew Clements, The Times
Georgia’s main aim in its offensive in South Ossetia appears to have been a swift advance on the separatist capital Tskhinvali to seize Ossetian territory and achieve a fait accompli before Russia is able to respond. The timing may have been chosen to coincide with Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing for the Olympic Opening Ceremony. Given Mr Putin’s significant role in Russian foreign policy, Georgia may have hoped that his absence would slow down any Russian response. In the fighting so far, Georgia has used its superiority in artillery and air power to drive the poorly equipped Ossetian forces from villages near Tskhinvali. This has allowed it to surround the city and, barring a short ceasefire so civilians can withdraw, continue its assault.Georgia Power Play, and Big Gamble - Jim Heintz, Associated Press
Behind the hostilities in South Ossetia are two nations that have long been spoiling for a fight, with Russia eager to show it's boss in the region and US-backed Georgia determined to prove it can stand up to its huge neighbor. With Vladimir Putin in Beijing for the Olympic opening ceremony and the world's attention fixed on China, Georgia may have been betting it could pounce on an opportunity to quickly wrest control of its breakaway province. But the gamble may backfire: Washington hasn't endorsed Georgia's power play, and Moscow's counteroffensive has brought the two sides into a fight it will be hard for Georgia, a former Soviet state, to win. The conflict has great strategic importance because it pits one of Washington's staunchest allies in the war on terror against Russia, a re-emerging superpower with vast energy reserves that is showing growing eagerness to assert its will on the international stage.Failed Gamble on Russia Not Fighting - O'Flynn and Fletcher, The Times
It looks, in retrospect, like a ruse that went badly wrong. After days of heavy skirmishing between Georgian troops and Russian-backed separatist militias in the breakaway republic of South Ossetia, Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian President, went on television on Thursday evening to announce that he had ordered an immediate unilateral ceasefire. Just hours later his troops began an all-out offensive with tanks and rockets to “restore constitutional order” to a region that won de facto independence in a vicious civil war that subsided in 1992. From that moment events began to spiral out of control.Taunting the Bear - James Traub, New York Times
The hostilities between Russia and Georgia that erupted on Friday over the breakaway province of South Ossetia look, in retrospect, almost absurdly over-determined. For years, the Russians have claimed that Georgia’s president, Mikheil Saakashvili, has been preparing to retake the disputed regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and have warned that they would use force to block such a bid. Mr. Saakashvili, for his part, describes today’s Russia as a belligerent power ruthlessly pressing at its borders, implacably hostile to democratic neighbors like Georgia and Ukraine. He has thrown in his lot with the West, and has campaigned ardently for membership in NATO. Vladimir V. Putin, Russia’s former president and current prime minister, has said Russia could never accept a NATO presence in the Caucasus.Why this Conflict Matters to the West - Richard Beeston, The Times
It would be a serious mistake for the international community to regard the dramatic escalation of violence in Georgia as just another flare-up in the Caucasus. The names of the flashpoints may be unfamiliar, the territory remote and the dispute parochial, but the battle under way will have important repercussions beyond the region. The outcome of the struggle will determine the course of Russia’s relations with its neighbours, will shape Dmitri Medvedev’s presidency, could alter the relationship between the Kremlin and the West and crucially could decide the fate of Caspian basin energy supplies. Quite what triggered the Georgian offensive, on the day that the world was supposed to gather in peace for the start of the Beijing Olympics, is not yet clear.Raping Georgia - Ralph Peters, New York Post
As I write, Russian tanks grind into a brave and isolated democratic state. Assuming that the world's attention would focus on Beijing, Moscow stage-managed an elaborate act of aggression against Georgia. But the world has changed since Soviet tanks rolled unchallenged into Afghanistan at Christmastime 29 years ago. Global communications now spotlight aggression instantly. Yesterday, the world didn't watch the Olympic opening ceremonies (the Chinese must be furious at the Russians). Instead, we saw images of Soviet - sorry, I meant Russian - aircraft pounding Georgian territory as Russian armor rolled over the Caucasus Mountains. The Kremlin is determined to break Georgia's will - and keep the feisty republic out of NATO.How Georgia Fell into its Enemies' Trap - Edward Lucas, The Times
When is a victory not a victory? When it dents your country's image, scares your allies and gets you into an unwinnable war with a hugely stronger opponent. That is the bleak outlook for Georgia this weekend, after what initially looked like a quick military win against the separatist regime in South Ossetia. Georgia's attack followed weeks of escalating provocations, including hours of heavy shelling by the Russian-backed breakaway province and signs of large-scale Russian reinforcement. Thanks to American military aid, Georgia's 18,000-strong armed forces are the best-trained and equipped fighting force in the Caucasus. But it is one thing for them to defeat the raggle-taggle militia of a tinpot place like South Ossetia (population 70,000). It is another for a country of less than five million people to take on Russia (population 142 million). Now the Kremlin is reacting strongly.World's Rising Powers Strut Their Stuff - Anne Applebaum, Washington Post
For the best possible illustration of why Islamic terrorism may one day be considered the least of our problems, look no further than the BBC's split-screen coverage of Friday's Olympic Opening ceremonies. On one side, fireworks sparkled and thousands of exotically dressed Chinese dancers bent their bodies into the shape of doves, the cosmos and so on. On the other side, grey Russian tanks were shown rolling into South Ossetia, a rebel province of Georgia. The effect was striking: Two of the world's rising powers were strutting their stuff. The difference, of course, is that one event has been rehearsed for years, while the other, if not a total surprise, was not actually scheduled to take place this week. And that, too, is significant: The Chinese challenge to Western power has been a long time coming, and it is in a certain sense predictable. As a rule, the Chinese do not make sudden moves and do not try to provoke crises. Russia, by contrast, is an unpredictable power, which makes responding to Moscow more difficult. In fact, Russian politics have become so utterly opaque that it is not easy to say why this particular "frozen" conflict has escalated now. Russian sources said yesterday that Georgia had launched an invasion of South Ossetia, aiming to pacify the breakaway region. Georgia, meanwhile, said that its troops entered the South Ossetian "capital" in response to escalating attacks, which have been intensifying for a week -- and have been taking place for years, really -- as well as the Russian aerial bombardment of Georgian territory.