http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Russian Troops Launch Ground Offensive in Georgia (Update3)

By Henry Meyer and Torrey Clark

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Russia sent ground forces into Georgia proper for the first time since fighting began five days ago, seizing a military base and forcing the Georgian army to retreat toward the capital.

Georgian officials accused Russia of seeking to overthrow the government of President Mikheil Saakashvili, while Russia said it was protecting the separatist Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Both countries gave contradictory accounts of fighting. Georgia says Russia is invading two cities while the Russians insist they're hitting only military targets.

``We no longer know the limits of the invading Russian Army. Russia seems intent on overthrowing the democratically elected government of Georgia and occupying the country,'' said Kakha Lomaia, the Secretary of the National Security Council.

The conflict is Russia's first major military offensive outside its borders since the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union. The war threatens to draw the U.S. into confrontation with Russia. The Bush administration backs Georgia's bid to join NATO which Russia views as a security threat. The West has courted Georgia as a counterweight to Russia's influence in the region, in part because it has an oil pipeline that bypasses Russia.

Russian troops seized a military base in the town of Senaki, 40 kilometers (25 miles) from Abkhazia, and ``invaded'' the city of Gori near South Ossetia, Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said by phone. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said in comments on CNN that Russia has ``to attack Georgian military targets'' to ``protect the lives of Russian citizens.''

Senaki

About 30 armored personnel carriers and more then 20 trucks with Russian soldiers entered Senaki and took control of its military base, Georgian Deputy Defense Minister Batu Kutelia said by phone. A Russian official said the move into Senaki, 40 kilometers (25 miles) from Abkhazia, is aimed at preventing Georgian troops from massing.

Ivanov said the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali was still being shelled by Georgian artillery near Gori. A Russian Defense Ministry official said ``not a single Russian soldier'' is in the city. Most residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia hold Russian passports.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who currently holds the EU presidency, is to visit Russia tomorrow to try to negotiate a cease-fire.

Russia Achieves `Goals'

``Russia has achieved its goals. Georgia will not be able to reunite with its regions in the coming decades,'' Alexander Rahr, a Russia expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Russia may be seeking to incapacitate the U.S.-armed Georgian military and topple Saakashvili, a U.S.-educated lawyer who came to power in 2003 and has sought to bring his former Soviet nation into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said Masha Lipman, an analyst with the Moscow Carnegie Center.

``I think Russia has not brought in its troops for the first time projecting military force outside its borders since the collapse of the Soviet Union in order to pull out quickly and return to the status quo,'' Lipman said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``I think that Russia has serious goals and Russia will not withdraw until its goals are fulfilled.''

Georgia and Russia have been fighting since Aug. 8 when Russia moved in troops and bombed targets after Georgian forces launched an offensive into South Ossetia, which split away from Georgia in an early 1990s war.

EU Peace Mission

The Russian incursions came after Saakashvili proposed a cease-fire to the five-day conflict and on the eve of a peace mission by the European Union.

Kutelia said the Georgian armed forces had withdrawn from Gori and regrouped in Mtskheta, some 70 kilometers (45 miles) from the capital Tbilisi.

``We are moving the defense line to Mtskheta,'' Deputy Defense Minister Batu Kutelia said by text message.

Saakashvili earlier today accused Russia of seeking ``regime change.'' ``We want and need an immediate cease-fire,'' he said in a conference call with reporters.

At least 1,600 civilians have died in South Ossetia since the conflict began on Aug. 7, according to Russia. Georgia says hundreds of troops have been killed on both sides as well as ``huge numbers'' of civilians.

Russia hasn't received an official proposal from Georgia for a cease-fire, Anatoly Nogovitsyn, Russian deputy chief of the General Staff, told reporters today in Moscow. Georgia has downed four Russian planes and 18 Russian soldiers have been killed, said Nogovitsyn.

Halt Military Action

The European Union's executive branch demanded a halt to all Russian military action on Georgian territory.

``We consider that the latest developments, such as the crossing of the Georgian borders by Russian troops, changed the dimension of the conflict,'' European Commission spokeswoman Krisztina Nagy told a news briefing in Brussels.

The Russian offensive has continued even though Georgia says it complied with Russian demands to withdraw its troops from South Ossetia. U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney said Russia's ``aggression'' would have ``serious consequences'' if it continued.

Putin today rounded on the U.S. for its ``cynicism'' in transporting 800 Georgian troops back from Iraq to take part in the conflict. He accused U.S. officials of ``Cold War thinking'' in televised comments.

`Russian Aggression'

U.S. Republican presidential candidate John McCain called for an international diplomatic response to what he termed ``Russian aggression'' in Georgia.

McCain said Moscow's attempt at ``toppling a democratically elected government'' is ``unacceptable to all the democratic countries of the world and should draw us together in universal condemnation of Russian aggression.''

Russia has said its actions are justified by what it calls a Georgian-waged ``genocide'' in South Ossetia. Russia says most of those killed in the conflict are civilians who died through Georgian military action.

Fighting spread over the weekend to Abkhazia, another separatist region which like South Ossetia is seeking independence from Georgia. Russia sent 9,000 troops there in addition to a 3,000-strong peacekeeping force on the ground.

Georgia is a key link in the U.S.-backed ``southern energy corridor'' that connects the Caspian Sea region with world markets, bypassing Russia. The BP Plc-led Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline to Turkey runs about 100 kilometers (60 miles) south of the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali.

It's called a counterattack, remember Georgia launching a large scale invasion Thursday? What are they supposed to do, hope Georgia decides not to level more cities (as opposed to breaking more of their toys) and agree to a "cease fire" where the Georgian army is still shooting at them?

I see Georgia invaded Russia. The way I hear it Russia says separatists
"called" for Russian help and they went in...then accused Georgia on bombing
the "break-away" province...and then started bombing and heavy armor rolling
into Georgia which was not in dispute. You agree with Russians on this one?

http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-08-11-voa63.cfm

Experts Discuss Georgia-Russia Conflict
By Andre de Nesnera
Washington
11 August 2008


Fighting between Russian and Georgian troops spread to western parts of Georgia Monday as international efforts to halt the clashes appeared to be picking up momentum. In this report from Washington, VOA Senior Correspondent André de Nesnera looks at what prompted the conflict in a very volatile region of the world.

Analysts agree the current conflict between Georgia and Russia was sparked by Tbilisi last week when it sent troops in an effort to take control of Tskhinvali, the capital of Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia. Russia, which had troops based in the breakaway region, responded to the attack by sending additional troops, tanks and armored personnel carriers in the region and going on the offensive.

South Ossetia, along with another Georgian region - Abkhazia - declared independence from Georgia in the mid 1990s. Georgia's president Mikhail Saakashvili has vowed to bring both regions back into the fold.

Tensions have been rising in the area for months, as Russia increased its economic, commercial and political ties with the two breakaway regions. A series of military moves by both Georgia and Russia in the area helped increase tensions even further.

Many experts are at loss to explain why President Saakashvili decided to send troops into South Ossetia at this time. But many analysts, including Marshall Goldman from Harvard University, say that move was a serious miscalculation.

"He certainly picked the wrong time to move this way," said Marshall Goldman. "He was upset because the Russians were violating Georgian airspace. I think he thought maybe this was the best time to move. He certainly provoked the Russians. I think the Russians were really looking for an excuse - and he provided it to them."

Western leaders, including U.S. President George Bush say the Russian response has been disproportionate.

Robert Legvold from Columbia University says Moscow's strong military response goes far beyond its initial reason of defending its own citizens in the region.

"No longer is it merely to restore peace and stability in South Ossetia," said Robert Legvold. "I think it is to destroy Georgian influence in South Ossetia and indeed for the most part in Abkhazia itself - and prepare the way, if the Russians chose to go in that direction - for annexing South Ossetia itself. And in the case of Abkhazia, recognize the independence of Abkhazia and then work out a different relationship with it."


France's Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, along with his Finnish counterpart Alexander Stubb and Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili visiting the Georgian city of Gori, 11 Aug 2008
Analysts say the international community's response to the conflict in Georgia has been lukewarm. Once again, Marshall Goldman.

"The Europeans have been basically neutralized," he said. "In part, because they've become very dependent on Russian oil and gas, particularly gas. For example, in the case of Germany, [Russia] provides 42 percent of Germany's natural gas. So the Germans, who were probably expected to take the leading role here, have been neutralized."

Experts say the United States - a strong supporter of President Saakashvili - has also been unable to persuade both sides to end the conflict.

Robert Legvold says it could turn out to be a foreign policy debacle for the United States as it will not help Georgia militarily and is unable to restrain Moscow.


A woman in Gori, Georgia cries, after finding out that her child was killed, 11 Auf 2008
"The Georgians are blaming the United States and the Russians are blaming the United States," he said. "The Georgians are blaming the U.S. for letting them down, betraying them, stab in the back - all of that. And the Russians are accusing the United States, as they have for some time, of having given license to what they regard as a hot-headed Georgian leader.'

Legvold and others believe the international community must work to secure a cease-fire before the conflict in the region gets completely out of hand.

Georgia invaded South Ossetia and Russia was the guarantor with peacekeeping troops there. After Georgia destroyed the largest city in South Ossetia with a massive artillery bombardment Russia had no choice, then it's a matter of whether the attack is merely countered or strong disincentive for future attacks is given.

It depends on what you mean by agree, they're closer to right than Georgia is (and I say this despite Georgia and Armenia being close as evidenced by Armenia being where refugees are going and Armenia depending on Georgia for a trade corridor) and Misha PROVED what a dishonest punk he is by making the patently false claim that Russian aircraft were basing out of Armenia for the conflict (I assume Georgian radar can tell NNW from ESE) because he wanted support from Azerbaijan.

The Georgian assault killed at least 1,400 civilians by attacking a city (not a military target) before Russian troops got into the conflict, did you expect Russia to accept this loss of face and wait for Georgia to become a NATO member (they've requested membership) or react like they did?

Both sides have engaged in armed provocation for the last couple years, Georgia decided to jump to a large scale attack, neither is clean but the fault is clear.

Europe doesn't want to depend on Russia and Iran for oil and gas, they have to side as they are out of fear that it's a takeover.

We have no pull with Russia and a government we installed by coup started the flare up, we have no military options. I think and hope Russia will be satisfied with retribution, breaking some toys, intimidation and driving Georgian forces permanently out of the breakaway territories. If they are it will play out quickly, if they aren't there's literally nothing we can do about it. Letting them know the less aggressive option is FAR more acceptable than the more aggressive one increases the chance for the better outcome, it's literally the only lever we have.


To me the biggest factor is avoiding hypocrisy, if we were Russia we'd do the same thing they have so far, we can only have credibility if our condemnation is saved for going beyond some further point ( like capturing Tiblisi or refusing to withdraw to the borders of the disputed regions).

If the US can have its way with Iraq and Afganistan, who's to say that the Russians can't
have their way in Georgia? We all need to take a deeper and broader look at the concept,
"Global Balance of Power." The US needs to start from scratch in building a cohesive Foreign
Policy. Our performance in this area has been going down hill since WWII and the FDR Administration.

Was I dreaming or was Obama sporting patches on both earlobes from a
recent double piercing as he gave his statement on Georgia today?

So we should let Russia invade/overtake Georgia? I argued against invading Iraq,
not Afghanistan...and Obama is talking about surging in Afghanistan and maybe
going into Pakistan...but not intervening in Georgia. Your fights define you.

Or we can "take a deeper and broader look at the concept,
"Global Balance of Power." The US needs to start from scratch(?) in building a cohesive Foreign
Policy."

From this sort of approach, springs the subtitle of this thread.[/i]

IF Russia takes over Georgia it gets sticky, there's no effective military response (Russia would easily win or go nuke) and even effective sanctions would lead to them also taking over Armenia and Azerbaijan (they've been trying politically and economically anyhow).

If someone who was trying to be a fellow deputy got put in the hospital because he kicked a known violent criminal he'd been in screaming matches with in the crotch would you back him knowing you'd lose the fight and the criminal would also win in court? Would you back him if you'd been telling him to avoid the fight? If he'd been saying that when he gets a badge he'd cap the guys ass?

We installed a puppet who went rogue, let's hope it doesn't bite us as hard as training and backing bin Laden did.

Let Russia invade? Do you mean like the way we invaded Japan after they bombed Pearl Harbor?

Let me get this straight. Two states seceed from Georgia,
Russia moves in troops to those states...Georgia tries to
take them back by force and Russia decides to invade Georgia.

That about right? And, we should let it go because if we don't
they might go further...sounds more like Checkoslovakia than Pearl Harbor.

You missed a couple steps there, there was an agreement where Georgia wasn't supposed to invade and Russia was the guarantor (peacekeeping force) for most of the territory which made it a protectorate much like Hawaii was. Counterattacks don't usually stop at the border and at least so far Georgia is the only side to target civilians.

If Russia only goes after military targets and stops 2 days after the return of Georgian troops from Iraq ( to prove that the extra troops don't tip the balance so Georgia isn't tempted to try again) it's only worthy of some bitching and moaning. If Russia shows it wants to take over Georgia (say by capturing Tblisi) then we're in the bind of finding what responses we actually have available.

Did Czeckslovakia attack a German protectorate and murder 1,400 civilians?

I don't trust Russia and their hands aren't clean (they were waiting for an excuse but unwilling to manufacture one), but bad analogies lead to bad conclusions.

Here's Obama's statement.....He said Russsia should invade/overtake Georgia???...where did he say this or even imply this? You are dreaming or something....

http://www.barackobama.com/2008/04/21/stat...or_obama_on.php


Statement of Senator Barack Obama on the Conflict in Georgia
August 11, 2008

Good morning. The situation in Georgia continues to deteriorate because of the escalation of Russia's use of military force. I have spoken to President Saakashvili, and conveyed my deep regret over the loss of life, and the suffering of the people of Georgia.

For many months, I have warned that there needs to be active international engagement to peacefully address the disputes over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, including a high-level and neutral international mediator, and a genuine international peacekeeping force - not simply Russian troops.

No matter how this conflict started, Russia has escalated it well beyond the dispute over South Ossetia and invaded another country. Russia has escalated its military campaign through strategic bombing and the movement of its ground forces into the heart of Georgia. There is no possible justification for these attacks.

I reiterate my call for Russia to stop its bombing campaign, to stop flights of Russian aircraft in Georgian airspace, and to withdraw its ground forces from Georgia. The Georgian government has proposed a cease-fire and the Russian government should accept it. There is also an urgent need for humanitarian assistance to reach the people of Georgia, and casualties on both sides.

The United States, Europe and all other concerned countries must stand united in condemning this aggression, and seeking a peaceful resolution to this crisis. We should continue to push for a United Nations Security Council Resolution calling for an immediate end to the violence. This is a clear violation of the sovereignty and internationally recognized borders of Georgia - the UN must stand up for the sovereignty of its members, and peace in the world.

I welcome the visit of the French and Finnish foreign ministers to Georgia as a first step toward mediation. There should also be a United Nations mediator to address this crisis, and the United States should fully support this effort. We should also convene other international forums to condemn this aggression, to call for an immediate halt to the violence, and to review multilateral and bilateral arrangements with Russia - including Russia's interest in joining the World Trade Organization.

The violence taking place along the Black Sea is just miles from Sochi, the site for the Winter Olympics in 2014. It only adds to the tragedy and outrage of the current situation that Russia has acted while the world has come together in peace and athletic competition in Beijing. This action is wholly inconsistent with the Olympic ideal.

While returning to a pre-August 8 military posture is a necessary first step to resolving this crisis, we cannot tolerate the unacceptable status quo that led to this escalation. That means Russian peacekeeping troops should be replaced by a genuine international peacekeeping force, Georgia should refrain from using force in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and a political settlement must be reached that addresses the status of these disputed regions.

Going forward, the United States and Europe must support the people of Georgia. Beyond immediate humanitarian assistance, we must provide economic assistance, and help rebuild what has been destroyed. I have consistently called for deepening relations between Georgia and transatlantic institutions, including a Membership Action Plan for NATO, and we must continue to press for that deeper relationship.

The relationship between Russia and the West is long and complicated. There have been many turning points, for good and ill. This is another turning point.
Let me be clear: we seek a future of cooperative engagement with the Russian government, and friendship with the Russian people. We want Russia to play its rightful role as a great nation - but with that role comes the responsibility to act as a force for progress in this new century, not regression to the conflicts of the past. That is why the United States and the international community must speak out strongly against this aggression, and for peace and security.

If your agree, with the Russians, that the rebel provinces were "protectorates".

Russian president's explanation:

"We cannot allow the deaths of our countrymen to go unpunished. The guilty parties will receive the punishment they deserve," Russia President Dmitry Medvedev said earlier.

Again, more like Czechoslovakia to me:

http://xroads.virginia.edu/~MA04/wood/mot/html/czech.htm

Czechs are resigned to the belief that war is inevitable. Czechoslovakia "is within the jaws of restless new Germany, which only a few months ago seized the lands and people of neighboring Austria. And the Fuhrer of the German war machine, bent on still further conquest, daily shouts his new demands: that Czechoslovakia surrender its richest lands, by granting autonomy to the Sudeten Germans, a powerful Czech minority already cocked and primed to go the way of Austria."

Again: "speak out for peace"...is that like "peace in our time"?

(edit add: Amy - I was asking Tom about overlooking the invasion...Lord get up to speed...but, since ya ask...Obama isn't responsible for the invasion...only for his response.)

indianhead just stirring the pot

then in the middle of the night upon reflecting or something, he will write a post saying he was only playing games

it sure gets tiring

Verify that the Czec government attacked Sudatenland and massacred civilians prompting (or at least excusing) a German response or drop the false analogy.

The analogy is based on the Russians assuming positions in
break-away provinces...gauranteeing their "countrymen"
security...they didn't roll in upon attack, they were there and were
the target of shelling, according to the Russian president they died
as a result. Russians claimed their "countrymen" were killed as a
result and thus the invasion.

Claim that the Georgians lauched a massive armada of aircraft
carriers and bombers to invade a protectorate 2,000 miles from
what they considered homelands...or that Georgians have a force
equaling the Russians, and I'll agree.

All analogies break down sooner or later and the one you chose breaks down at first glance, Germany had no peace agreement that was violated by invasion and massacre. The civilians who were there (mostly with Russian passports so Russian citizens) were massacred in the Georgian invasion, the ICRC confirmed this.

Ossetia has considered itself part of Russia for centuries and Russia has reciprocated those feelings, even if this wasn't the case we'd be talking less than 100 miles, not 2,000.

They both engaged in low intensity warfare, Georgia decided an all out attack was a good move, they lost.

I agree Georgia bit off more then they can chew...but the Russians sure have The West upset...


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/12/georgia.russia1

War in the Caucasus

Moscow accused of planning invasion but remains deaf to critics

Ian Traynor in Brussels The Guardian (UK), Tuesday August 12 2008

The Bush administration yesterday accused the Kremlin of spending months preparing a military invasion of Georgia in an act of "aggression that must not go unanswered".

The sharp rise in western condemnation of Russia's campaign in the Caucasus underlined the mood of rising panic and alarm as western leaders interrupted their holidays and scrambled to confect a response to the crisis in the Caucasus.

Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister and former president, who appears to be calling the shots over Georgia, responded furiously to the western criticism.

Dick Cheney, the hawkish US vice-president, told President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States."

John McCain, the Republican presidential contender, issued a robust attack on the Kremlin.

"Russian president Medvedev and prime minister Putin must understand the severe, long-term negative consequences that their government's actions will have for Russia's relationship with the US and Europe," he said.

"In the face of Russian aggression, the very existence of independent Georgia - and the survival of its democratically-elected government - are at stake ... Russia is using violence against Georgia to intimidate other neighbours, such as Ukraine, for choosing to associate with the west and adhering to western political and economic values."

In the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, Matt Bryza of the US state department said Russia had been preparing an invasion for several months.

"We heard statements saying that Russian railroad troops that entered Abkhazia [in Georgia] a couple of months ago were there for a humanitarian mission," he said. "Now we know the truth that these forces were there to rebuild the railway to allow ammunition and other military supplies to aid a Russian invasion."

Western leaders rushed to try to contain the crisis and to offer to mediate. The French and Swedish foreign ministers, Bernard Kouchner and Carl Bildt, went to Tbilisi where Saakashvili said he unreservedly accepted the French proposal for a ceasefire.

France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy, is to go to Moscow and Tbilisi today as current EU president to try to cement a ceasefire and facilitate negotiations.

EU foreign ministers are to interrupt their holidays to hold an emergency meeting tomorrow in Brussels where Dmitri Rogozin, Russia's hardline envoy to the western alliance, called for a special Nato-Russia meeting on the crisis.

All the signs were that Moscow would press home its overwhelming military superiority in Georgia to destroy strategic targets, infrastructure, and humiliate the small Georgian military before accepting a truce and then trying to dictate the terms of negotiations.

Putin scoffed at western "cynicism", drew parallels between Saakashvili and Saddam Hussein and accused the Georgians of perpetrating atrocities that should be prosecuted as war crimes.

"They had to hang Saddam Hussein for destroying several Shia villages," he said. "But the current Georgian rulers who in one hour simply wiped 10 Ossetian villages from the face of the earth, the Georgian rulers which used tanks to run over children and the elderly, who threw civilians into cellars and burnt them - they are players that have to be protected."

The calls for an immediate ceasefire came from Nato, the G-7 grouping of industrial democracies, the EU, and Washington. The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, is to meet the Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, on Friday in Sochi on the Black Sea next to Georgia.

-----------------------

I don't like Bush and like Cheney less...but Putin claims Georgia = Hussein's Iraq. Maybe some agree. Maybe some here will think it important enough
to interrupt their vacation.

Tomhye's appraisal seems really grim but accurate to me.

IH, if you think the current US policy is appeasement, do you see a better option?

Was there a better US option when Czechoslovakia or Hungary was invaded by the Soviets? It seems like the US response was to loudly condemn while sitting on its hands.

We've airlifted 1,000 Georgians fighting beside US troops in Iraq back to their capital to defend it.
If Russians mount an offensive on that capital I can see air support for them. Straight up.
If air power and armor of Russia is allowed to roll over Georgia...what's next?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caucasus



Detailed map of the Caucasus region (1994), including locations of economicaly important energy and mineral resources: South Ossetia has reserves of lead and zinc, Abkhazia has coal, and Georgia has oil, gold, copper, manganese, and coal.


Three territories in the region claim independence but are not acknowledged as nation-states by the international community: Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh and South Ossetia.

Following the end of the Soviet Union, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia became independent in 1991. The Caucasus region is subject to various territorial disputes since the collapse of the Soviet Union, leading to the Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994), the Ossetian-Ingush conflict (1989-1991), the War in Abkhazia (1992–1993), the First Chechen War, 1994–1996, the Second Chechen War (1999–present), and the 2008 South Ossetia War.

----------------------

If Georgia falls that leaves her sisters of 1991...Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Russians already have footholds in Azerbaijan...that leaves...Armenia .
I know Tom's interest is in her...I'm just not sure waiting for Georgia to fall
protects her. The decision must be made before Georgia is allowed to fall, IMO.

You know, I heard on BBC radio the London based reporter asking if the Russian people actaully believed that Georgia had attacked, implying that the only way that they could reach that conclusion was because the media was controlled. That such incredulous questions are posed shows just how effectively the Western media is controlled.

Georgia was just plain stupid to invade a place that is effectively part of Russia. And that the media can not report it accurately is bad news for us all.

So Russian propaganda is more appealing then British. Hummmmmmmm...
"effectively a part of Russia"...well then there are couple of other 1991-born
nations that would meet the same criteria. Let's let 'em all go...Afghanistan too...
bring 'em all home...and let's see what happens. Think we are alternative-poor now?

http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=13285

August 11, 2008 Justin Raimondo
The Real Aggressor
Georgian invasion of South Ossetia sets the stage for a wider war



Losing your grip on the population? Start a war, spread fear and retake control!

Sound familiar?

You are completely missing reality. South Ossetia is not some unwilling slave to Russia, they want to be part of Russia. The Russian troops there are not an invading army, they are protecting South Ossetia because the people of that nation want them too.

anti-war.com...how about the Armenian-American history site?

http://www.armeniaemb.org/DiscoverArmenia/...ory/History.htm

After the Turkey defeat in World War I, the independent Republic of Armenia was established on May 28, 1918, but survived only until Nov. 29, 1920, when it was annexed by the Soviet Army. On March 12, 1922, the Soviets joined Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan to form the Transcaucasian Soviet Socialist Republic, which became part of the USSR. In 1936, after reorganization, Armenia became a separate constituent republic of the USSR. Since 1988, Armenia has been involved in a territorial dispute with Azerbaijan over the enclave of Nagorno - Karabagh, to which both lay claim. Also in 1988, a devastating earthquake killed thousands and wreaked, economic havoc. Armenia declared its independence form the collapsing Soviet Union on Sept 23, 1991. (as did Georgia)

So, say Russia takes Georgia and puts troops in Nagorno-Karabagh on Azerbaijani request...pushing Armenia around in cross-border disputes. Say Armenian troops shell break-away troops there...should Russia invade? This is hypothetical...as South Ossetian was to Georgia...until this past week. You can hope it stops, believe it will...but you'd better have a plan.

I disagree with Georgia=Iraq as much as Russia=Germany.

Russia can't accept the current ceasefire proposal, it allows Georgian troops in part of the breakaway territories. So far every country seems to be playing to the domestic audience and reacting by interest not the actual facts, someone needs to break that pattern.

If Russia takes Tblisi we need to react, I'm not sure if airpower is the answer but we can be sure people are gaming it out to have a good guess.

If Georgia falls Armenia falls, that's why it's so important to me that the US stop trying to be the other bully on the block and make that outcome less likely. Georgia started the fight, we need to accept the bloody nose instead of pushing to lose by knockout.

Worst analogy yet! Ossetia IS effectively part of Russia and the Georgian claim is based on how Stalin transferred territories to different republics to sow instability if they ever seceded.

Someone being us?

My point is simply if Hitler can claim protecting Sudeten Germans
in Checkoslovakia, and Russians South Ossetians in Georgia to justify invasions...
what's to stop the train of thought before the Nagorno-Karabakh people
want Russina help against another breakaway Republic?

So, SOUTH Ossetia is part of Russia? I missed that...I thought they were part of Georgia since '91.

You keep changing the subject. Armenia's declaration is a ridiculous analogy. What we are talking about here is that Georgia invaded South Ossetia, which has wholeheartedly declared its allegiance to Russia and who have on their soil Russian military for the purpose of protecting them from invasion.

What else could Georgia expect if they deliberately attack a Russian protectorate?

Can you please explain your objections in the context of this situation as it playing out right now? There is no need to drag in historically irrelevant straw men.

You have it backwards, Ossetia was part of Russia Stalin gave to Georgia to assure a civil war if Georgia seceded from the USSR, if we let Georgia massacre civilians and take it by force what's to stop Azerbaijan from doing the same to NKR which had been part of Armenia for 3,000 years until Stalin gave it to Azerbaijan for the same purpose?

Even so I don't trust Russia and fear them taking over the region, it's just a matter of needing to get the basic facts right to see potential outcomes.

Memories are as long there as in the Middle East, Stalin gave South Ossetia to Georgia, Ossetians have considered themselves Russian for centuries and Russia has considered Ossetia Russian for centuries, you can't change that.

So Stalin is the reason Georgia is messed up since gaining
independence in 1991...not 1918? Okay...if you are satisfied
that Georgia deserves it...I defer to your opinion, disagree, but differ.

We'll see the future results of inaction. I hope you are correct.

I'll stand by what I said...and everyone else should too. It will
be too late then, if Russia moves further...but we can wait...if that's
what y'all see as politically correct...we'll see what Russia decides.

And you can ignore the consequences of militarily engaging Russia for doing what any nation that is attacked would do.

It has nothing to do with politically correct, it has to do with not wanting to get our teeth kicked in for deciding to be on the wrong side of a war we can avoid.

That's true and in all likelyhood the Russians are going to deliver a good spanking to the Georgians in retaliation for the spanking Serbia got at the hands of NATO. What we are seeing now is a good example of Newton's third law of motion; for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

I had misgivings when Clinton set out to un "expletive deleted" up the Balkans, I believed he'd never be able to do it. Well he did a good job in the Balkans but he also really pissed off the Russians.

I believe Russia will stop short of exterminating the Georgian state but I bet they will take advantage of this opportunity to let the West know not to mess with one her friends again. It's time to pay the piper.

The way you speak of these two things you make it seem like one has a lot to do with the other.

Cease fire with buffer zone outside the 2 breakaway territories.

Thanks for that map! That is one of the most detailed I've seen.

Is tactical air support a viable option?
I'm sure, as Tomhye suggests, that the Pentagon "has gamed the option."
Just by looking at this map and thinking back to my experience as an AF transport pilot,
Several questions come to mind.

Would Turkey agree to the use of Incirlik to launch such air support missions?
Would Turkey agree to overfly their air space?
If Turkey were to agree to these things, what might Turkey want in return-----to have their way with Kurds in Northern Iraq or the Armenians?
From where else might such missions be launched?

I strongly suspect this will be over shortly. Russia may throw a few more bombs but a ground invasion to conquer Georgia won't happen.

Interesting point of view. Not quite sure if I agree with it.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/huntley/11025...-hunt12.article
Many of this I would take issue with. Still, in moving towards a position as tough as McCain's after a few days, it shows reticence in Obama to take a stand, and as such inexperience.

I would note that McCain's speech prior however seemed as if he didn't know what he was talking about. Obama's response still seems calm and collected, however in today's world one can not take one or two days to polish a speech. He must create reasoned responses at about the same day as his opponent, if not before.

Neither of the two handled themselves well in this instance, though I may give McCain a very slight advantage on this one.

Seems to me that the first step would be to tell the truth... that Georgia instigated this confrontation.

Yet... I hear McCain talking about how Russia attacked Georgia.

Guess I should have expected as much from the Crooked Talk Express.

However, to note, I may be closer to Obama's call for restraint in both party's part. McCain's seem to be over-reactive in terms of denunciation.

Russia has escalated that regional conflict, and due to Georgia's ties to the US, it has made the US react. Problem is, this has become a delicate situation that can lead to another cold war, if we are not already there to begin with. In truth, I believe we already are in a "Cold War" of sorts which was precipitated by Bush's insistence on missile defense which comes close to Russia's borders.

I am curious to see how each candidate would comport themselves in this situation. Neither of the two has impressed me.

McCain got it wrong, Obama got it less wrong.

Listen to McCain, you can tell his foreign agent buddy writes his material and tells him what stances to take.

Precisely my point. The guy doesn't seem to know what he is talking about. However, his reactionary response was closer to acceptability to someone who dawdles a few days before giving one. Just feels like shades of Bush, where he is in vacation during a crisis and takes a few days before actually doing something, which is unacceptable as well.

Cut him some slack, he obviously just parrots what he's told on it, nobody else in the US is giving full and undiluted Georgian propaganda. Looks to me like somebody flushed and he no longer even has sh*t for brains.

Both got it wrong.
However, Obama moving closer towards McCain's initial position(in terms of denouncing Russia) while still calling for restraint, that though is measured and perhaps a more right can be construed as inexperience and refusing to take a stand. In that sense, McCain took some slight advantage, even if I think he was wrong.

If McCain was POTUS we'd be involved militarily or imposing sanctions that would hurt us and not Russia as well as handing them the Caucuses. I'll take unsure over that kind of wrong any day.

Yeah, Obama playing to domestic politics by joining in the condemnation is a bit punk, but he's still head and shoulders above McCain on this.

Yes, but they aren't yet.
So unfortunately, we also have to think how this would play to the general perception of the public. That is where they are jockeying their positions.
Even if I can agree with Obama's position more, I have to give affirmation towards an advantage in McCain's part.

McCain may have some slight political advantage here, but I think it'll fade and Obama came close enough to close the gap some (didn't look too hobbled by inexperience). If Georgia has high profile differences with the Deep State (in context Azerbaijan or militarists in Turkey) watch McCain go deer in the headlights, he isn't even honest enough with himself to know he has owners, much less foreign ones. (I've known that about him for years, it's why he hates me)