Latest on the Dem VP Race: Not Going to be Bayh, Daschle or Clark
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I won't post sources on this, so any folks are welcome to consider this my fanciful speculation.

But sources close to Obama report to me that after the "surge of concern" on the net about Evan Bayh, he has not been selected as Obama's VP running mate.

I have been informed that the decision has been made, and I don't know who that person is.

I also have been told that Tom Daschle is not the running mate. I also happen to know that it is not Wesley Clark.

I just received word that it is not Senator Jack Reed either, though Obama thought very highly of him.

In my estimation, that leaves Joseph Biden, Chuck Hagel, and Sibelius. I don't think that Tim Kaine would be the nominee given the elevation of Mark Warner as the keynote speaker at the Dem convention.

As much as I would love Hagel to be the nominee, I don't think that will happen. . .and while I could be wrong here, I have heard next to nothing about Sibelius.

That leaves Joe Biden. Could Warner be a head fake -- and it's Tim Kaine after all? Not sure. . .circumstantial evidence points to Biden.

Of all places where Biden is now, he's in Georgia -- the one in the tangle with Russia.

One well placed political expert just told me on the phone that we may all be wrong and that Obama could come out with something completely unexpected -- a Hillary Clinton or even (and this shocked me) Al Gore or John Kerry. I don't have any info on such surprising possibilities as these.

We may know Monday or Tuesday.

I won't defend or go into my sources. Discount this as you like.

-- Steve Clemons

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/...atest_on_the_d/

Graham, yesterday was my birthday, and today is my wife's birthday.

Plus my kids had their last day of summer school Friday, so now have a school break until the day after Labor Day.

We all have other things to celebrate.

we know it's your birthday
Your thread from last year has lasted (without being archieved for some reason) a RECORD-BREAKING ENTIRE YEAR!!!

Now that's a celebration- has any other birthday thread (normally I don't respond on birthday threads, because heaven help I miss someone's once, they thought it was a smear, when I had not
see it, so now I don't respond on them at all basically to not offend anyone's I might miss, I miss them all)

But your thread lasted an entire year!!!(how time flies)...
a year ago, nobody thought the invincible Hillary/Bayh team would self-destruct

and they did.

THANK GOD AND OBAMA FOR THAT!!!

Happy Birthday Arne..

It was a beautiful day --- hope your year is a great one --- and many more are on the horizon...

isn't life great this morning on this wonderful news???

Obama/Gore2008
Obama/Kerry2008

Graham, if Obama loses what would you think if someone proposed that there be a celebration? I think no one could reasonably be stopped from doing that, as people here are free to oppose him. But do you think that would be a nice thing?

arneoker- do you not think Indianhead, DGG, Marine, and a few other's won't be saying

I TOLD YOU SO if Obama lost (never mind it would be their fault...but...)

they will do so

Nice is winning. Being not nice is how one wins in 2008. Nice got us unseated in 2000,2002,2004,2006Joe

What about Obama/Bayh 2008?

It ain't over til the fat lady sings...

Biden is a plagiarist...

Other than that he brings nothing on domestic policy and would actually weaken the ticket because IMHO -- Obama is already comfortable on foreing policy and national security issues and Biden will do nothing bringing Delaware voters to the party where they already are...

Sibelius would be a slap in the face to Hillary supporters...

So Obama is free to pick who he chooses --- but Bayh would be a much more rational choice...

Obama's Vice Presidential Running Mate Search Nears End
Clinton Odds 50:1; Bayh, Biden Top List as Democratic Candidate Keeps Pundits Guessing
By JAKE TAPPER
ALBURQUERQUE, N.M.
Aug. 18, 2008—


With just one week to go before the Democrats open their 2008 nominating convention in Denver, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is giving no real hints about his vice presidential pick.

Pundits are left trying to interpret the television appearances, Obama's campaign schedule, denials and even a trip to a foreign hotspot to handicap the Democratic veepstakes.

By one calculus, Delaware's Sen. Joe Biden, who made a quick trip overseas for a first and assessment of the confrontation between Georgia and Russia, may have become the front-runner.

But Obama is scheduled to be in Virginia this Thursday, giving him a perfect moment in the days before the Democratic National Convention to anoint Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine as his running mate.

Whoever it's going to be is scheduled to give the speech of his life at the convention next Wednesday. He -- or she -- may want to start working on a first draft.


Top Veepstakes Contenders Emerge
Here's how the veepstakes stand at the moment:

Sen. Joe Biden: He is probably the favorite right now, "which means he's not going to get it," ABC News' chief Washington correspondent George Stephanopoulos said with a grin on "Good Morning America" Monday.

Biden is head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and would bring strong international credentials to the Democratic ticket.

He is a forceful debater and "would appeal to working class Catholics in places like Pennsylvania and New Jersey," Stephanopoulos said.

On the negative side, Biden would be seen as a Washington insider.

"Obama is not looking for that," Stephanopoulos told "GMA," since it would clash with Obama's theme of change. And the voluable Biden has been afflicted in the past with "foot-in-mouth disease," Stephanopoulos said.

Gov. Tim Kaine: The youthful Virginia governor and Obama are "simpatico," Stephanopoulos said. They have campaigned frequently together and would present a ticket of two fresh-faced outsiders.

Kaine made the Sunday morning talk show rounds, stoking interest that he remains on Obama's short list.



Clinton a Dark Horse for Obama Veep
On the downside, an Obama-Kaine ticket would have two candidates who are so new to the national arena that they could be attacked for being light on experience.

What may also be working against Kaine is the Democrats have designated his predecessor, former governor Mark Warner, to be the convention's keynote speaker. It would be unusual, if not unlikely to have two key speakers from the same state.

Sen. Evan Bayh: The Indiana senator would help Obama win the Hoosier State, which Obama desperately wants to win.

It would be the first time the Democrats would win Indiana in a presidential contest since 1964. Bayh has boyish good looks and hefty national security experience, which would also bolster the credentials of the Democratic ticket.

Working against Bayh, however, is a soft-spoken, some say bland manner that makes some tacticians wonder whether Bayh would be able to fit the running mate role of an attack dog against Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican candidate.

Bayh auditioned for the attack dog role Sunday when he attacked McCain over his tough talk about Russia's invasion of Georgia by raising questions about McCain's well-known temper.

"John sometimes, he's a good person, but he's a little bit given to this kind of bellicose rhetoric, which has a tendency to inflame rather than to defuse them," Bayh said on CBS' "Face the Nation."

Naming Bayh as his running mate would also run the risk of losing Bayh's Senate seat to a Republican, a potential threat to the slim Democratic margin in the upper chamber of Congress.

Dark Horse: That could be former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn, who has been a close Obama adviser on foreign affairs, particularly Russia, Stephanopoulos said.

Besides giving the Democratic ticket the foreign affairs gravitas that it currently lacks, having Nunn on the ticket would give the Democrats a shot at winnng Georgia.

"That would be huge," Stephanopoulos said.

Nunn, who is socially conservative, would create friction with some of the party's activists, particularly gays and lesbians.

But the most intriguing longshot may be Obama's former rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.

"You could never say never," Stephanopoulos said. "If you give me 50-1, I'd take it."


http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Politics/story?i...1700&page=1

Gore or Kerry would be perfect IMHO

avenging the theft of 2000 and 2004

Gore would be more perfect than Kerry, but Kerry would be okay by me.

Gore is one of the very few who qualify all 5 of Obama's own wants in a VP from 2 weeks ago, that Obama himself said.
Bayh missed out on all 4.

BUT BAYH is now Elmiinated!!!! There is a God!

I like Biden..a lot. I would be content with him as VP.

Thank God for this news. Thanks for posting it.

tax- your article was actually written days earlier than the one I put up. Your article also has no sources. My article claims inside sources.
(who did not reveal who, BUT did reveal who not.)

What makes it more, "Rational?"

why bayh fanatics want to lose a seat in the senate is beyond me...that issue alone should have disqualified him
years ago

that he is still even mentioned means Hillary and Bill care little about the democratic party, and don't want to
get as close to 60 as possible

being that bayh offers NOTHING any other dem-lite (and there are 100 others) could offer.
Nothing positive of course.

Taz provided reasons for his opinion that it was more rational. If you thought his reasons were flawed, why did you not state how you thought they were flawed?

Your question does not make sense here, unless, quite frankly, you intended to insult him.

So you would have no problem if they boldly called for celebrating such a loss, even if it were, as you say, "their fault".

Otherwise your position seems, well...inconsistent.

bayh is a negative, therefore insane to pick him
if he is picked the core obama base will know obama is not free to implement any change whatsoever and we are doomed to more of the same.

this wanton love for bayh is irrational, unless there is some underlying reason for the love that has not been admitted to on these here pages.

Well, your hatred of Bayh is no less irrational.....

a look at his record

and a look at the senate make-up showing it is most likely a republican will replace Bayh in the senate, losing a hard won seat is in itself a reason to eliminate him.

Makes more sense instead of Bayh, if Obama were forced, just pick Hillary, not her #1 surrogate. Bayh made sense for Hillary's VP, not Obama's.

no particular love for bayh --- just that he is the only candidate left for VP which has experience managing a government -- Biden does not --- Sibelious is too young --- Kaine is too young -- but Bayh has a proven track record as a Secretary of State and then a two term governor --- he knows how to do a state budget --- he knows how to balance the issues to get a budget through --- work with a Legislature in putting a budget together -- this is valuable stuff...he knows how to manage a state economy ---

And there will always be some upset with any choice no matter which one is picked...

Biden adds nothing in terms of votes to the ticket...

He will not help Obama in OH, MI, WI, MN and other red states like CO and VA like Bayh would.

This election is just like 1992 in that it is the economy and without someone with proven experience on the ticket it is a huge risk...

The Note: Biden, Bayh See Stocks Rise for Veep

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/20...note-biden.html

Share August 18, 2008 8:30 AM

ABC News' Rick Klein reports in Monday's Note: All he needs is experience . . . that reinforces his message of change . . . while bringing geographic/ethnic/ideological diversity . . . and fluidity at world affairs . . . without upsetting Hillary Clinton supporters . . . or the liberal left . . . in the package of someone who’s ready to be president . . . who won’t make it harder to hope and dream . . . or overshadow the man at the top of the ticket . . . or say something dumb . . . or be too boring to be relevant.

(Still wondering why it’s taken him so long to choose?)

It’s decision time for a back-from-vacation Sen. Barack Obama -- and yes, our cell phones are charged and ready to receive any important communications.

(DQMOT -- but the smart money puts the pick in the latter part of the week -- when Obama’s schedule is wide open.)

(And have recent events changed the criteria? How many contenders are in Georgia by invitation right now?)

One thing the Obama campaign has done right: We are now so conditioned to think it won’t be Hillary Clinton that the why-isn’t-it-her storyline won’t have a long shelf life. (And if it is Hillary -- oh boy.)

Read the rest of The Note -- and get all the latest on the 2008 election, Congress, the White House and the wide world of politics every day -- from Rick Klein by bookmarking this link.

One thing the campaign hasn’t proven it’s done right: We are now so close to the start of the convention that a the pick takes on more importance and is guaranteed more quick, harsh scrutiny -- which will mean a welcome-to-the-big-leagues couple of news cycles for Obama’s No. 2.

It’s an uneasy time for Democrats -- winning in the polls, but not by enough; behind the standard-bearer, but still dealing with Clinton drama; excited about the ticket, but not sure yet what that ticket will look like.

“Think of the choice Sen. Obama has to make about his running mate as if it's a horserace of contenders running through his head his heart and his gut,” ABC’s Jake Tapper reported on “Good Morning America” Monday -- with Tim Kaine surging early and Joe Biden coming on strong.

And don’t forget a dark horse: “There's talk of Hillary Clinton and former senator Sam Nunn,” Tapper reports.

ABC’s George Stephanopoulos tags Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., who’s in Georgia on Monday at the request of the Georgian leader, as the favorite: “I think he probably is [the favorite] right now -- which means he’s not going to get it.” And regarding Clinton: “If you gave me 50-1, I’d take it.”

On timing: “A person familiar with the campaign's planning noted that Obama's schedule at the end of this week is open, but said the announcement could come ‘as late as the weekend,’ ” Ben Smith and Glenn Thrush write for Politico. “As a candidate whose currency has been his personal story, in choosing his running mate, Obama will also be choosing a narrative.”

Continue reading today's Note by clicking HERE.

ABC News' Hope Ditto and Amanda Temple contributed to this report.

August 18, 2008 in Biden, Joe, Clinton, Hillary, Edwards, John, Huckabee, Mike, McCain, John, Obama, Barack, Romney, Mitt, Veepstakes, Vote 2008: Democrats, Vote 2008: Republicans, Washington | Permalink | User Comments (22)

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Arne, your participation is always welcomed. Considering that your post, in this incidence, didn't add any substance, one might wonder if you just wanted to insult me. Let's just wait and see how Taz applies, "Rational Choice Theory" to his position.

taz- yeah, Obama is listening to Pretty Boy Stephie who ambushed him in the debate. So much so that ABC is NOT involved in the presidential debates.
Last i heard, Stephie is still on the Clinton's payroll and always will be. Of course he wants Bayh.

With Bayh at the top of the ticket with Obama it is more likely a Democratic Governor will win in IN in their gubernatorial race in Nov. and he would choose who replaced Evan Bayh --- and it would be a Dem...

Hillary does not make sense over Bayh because she brings with her all her and Bill's baggage which Bayh does not have...

Bayh is well-liked --- and he can speak the language in the midwest to win votes for Obama which Biden cannot do.

aka blue dog Dems....

but his appeals is probably much more geographically targeted/limited than Biden's.

I never said my post was "more" rational -- but I did present reasons.

The economy is in the whole and Joe Biden has not managed a company or a state government --- so I see him as adding little on the economic front...

And I also do not see that Obama has been able to convince too many on this issue...

Evan Bayh has been for small business and job growth since he entered the US Senate he could likely speak with zeal and authority on this issue and make a stronger case than Obama has made on these issues. He is also a two term governor who has effectively managed a state government...and send 8 budgets to the Legislature...cut taxes and managed the economy well creating jobs -- etc.

America cares about foreign issues --- but economics is where Bill Clinton and Democrats in the past have made inroads and this election is about economics...more than anything...

I have been able to find the column that I thought either Nick Kristoff or Tom Friedman wrote on the next vice president having an eocnomics background, but I thought it made a good case.

August 18, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist
It’s the Economy Stupor
By PAUL KRUGMAN
By rights, John McCain should be getting hammered on economics.

After all, Mr. McCain proposes continuing the policies of a president who’s had a truly dismal economic record — job growth under the current administration has been the slowest in 60 years, even slower than job growth under the first President Bush. And the public blames the White House, giving Mr. Bush spectacularly low ratings on his handling of the economy.

Meanwhile, The Times reports that, according to associates, Mr. McCain still “dials up” Phil Gramm, the former senator who resigned as co-chairman of the campaign after calling America a “nation of whiners” and dismissing the country’s economic woes as nothing more than a “mental recession.” And Mr. Gramm is still considered a top pick for Treasury secretary.

So Mr. McCain would seem to offer a target a mile wide: a die-hard supporter of failed economic policies who takes his advice from people completely out of touch with the lives of working Americans.

But while polls continue to show that the public, by a large margin, trusts Democrats more than Republicans to handle the economy, recent polling shows that Barack Obama has at best a small edge over Mr. McCain on the issue — four points in a recent Time magazine poll, and he is one point behind according to Rasmussen Reports, which does automated polling. And Mr. Obama’s failure to achieve a decisive edge on economic policy is central to his failure to open up a big lead in overall polling.

Why isn’t the Obama campaign getting more traction on economic issues?

It’s not the Republican offensive on offshore drilling. It’s true that many Americans have apparently been misled by bogus claims about gas price relief. But as I’ve already pointed out, Democrats in general retain a large edge on economic issues.

Nor is there any valid basis for the complaints, highlighted in Sunday’s Times, that Mr. Obama isn’t offering enough policy specifics. Delve into the Obama campaign Web site and you’ll find plenty of policy detail. And the campaign’s ads reel off lots of specific policy proposals — too many, if you ask me.

No, the problem isn’t lack of specifics — it’s lack of passion. When it comes to the economy, Mr. Obama’s campaign seems oddly lethargic.

I was astonished at the flatness of the big economy speech he gave in St. Petersburg at the beginning of this month — a speech that was billed as the start of a new campaign focus on economic issues. Mr. Obama is a great orator, yet he began that speech with a litany of statistics that were probably meaningless to most listeners.

Worse yet, he seemed to go out of his way to avoid scoring political points. “Back in the 1990s,” he declared, “your incomes grew by $6,000, and over the last several years, they’ve actually fallen by nearly $1,000.” Um, not quite: real median household income didn’t rise $6,000 during “the 1990s,” it did so during the Clinton years, after falling under the first Bush administration. Income hasn’t fallen $1,000 in “recent years,” it’s fallen under George Bush, with all of the decline taking place before 2005.

Obama surrogates have shown a similar inclination to go for the capillaries rather than the jugular. A recent Wall Street Journal op-ed by two Obama advisers offered another blizzard of statistics almost burying the key point — that most Americans would pay lower taxes under the Obama tax plan than under the McCain plan.

All this makes a stark contrast with the campaign of the last Democrat to make it to the White House, who had no trouble conveying passion over matters economic.

In his speech accepting the Democratic nomination in 1992, a year in which economic conditions somewhat resembled those today, Bill Clinton denounced his opponent as someone “caught in the grip of a failed economic theory.” Where Mr. Obama spoke cryptically in St. Petersburg about a “reckless few” who “game the system, as we’ve seen in this housing crisis” — I know what he meant, I think, but how many voters got it? — Mr. Clinton declared that “those who play by the rules and keep the faith have gotten the shaft, and those who cut corners and cut deals have been rewarded.” That’s the kind of hard-hitting populism that’s been absent from the Obama campaign so far.

Of course, Mr. Obama hasn’t given his own acceptance speech yet. Al Gore found a new populist fervor in August 2000, and surged in the polls. A comparable surge by Mr. Obama would give him a landslide victory this year.

But it’s up to him. If Mr. Obama can’t find the passion on economic matters that has been lacking in his campaign so far, he may yet lose this election.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/18/opinion/...agewanted=print

I was responding to Graham's comments that the Dems would lose the seat in IN.

Certainly, Bayh as an unknown does have a more limited appeal, but if you look where Obama needs support its in the MIdwest.

Bill Clinton picked Al Gore -- at first I thought this was a dumb choice because they both hailed from the South...but I soon recanted since Gore complemented Clinton in so many other areas and actually helped strengthen the ticket.

If Obama's major vulnerability is experience -- and Obama considers himself policy wise most comfortable on international issues and not domestic policy --- then why would he choose a running mate with the same experience that Obama believes he possesses?

I am not suggesting that Obama is listening to Stephanopoulus, but just because he is in Clinton's back pocket does not mean that you can instantly dismiss his analysis, only that you need to take that into account when reviewing it...

Amy --- that is what I have been saying all along and Graham just hasn't come to terms with this reality --- he still think he is an example of independence when discussing Bayh and I am an example of bias... go figure...

So...

And what sources were revealed in yours?

Its all still specualtion...

Maybe its Bill Richardson...who knows...but until a choice is made --- it could be Bayh, Biden, Richardson, Clinton etc.

Heck, maybe it will be Powell.

I don't try and figure out many of Graham's responses...they just don't make sense to me and I leave it at that.... Many of his responses do make sense...I pay attention to those....

Fair enough...

And.. it may well be that they view the geographic / demographic appeal as most important... and it could well be.

With regard to Biden's experience vs Obama's... it wouldn't be so much about Obama's view of his own strengths as it would be the public perception... and Biden's would carry a lot more weight in the eyes of the public imho. It became much more relevant in the last ten days...

Okay Rla, perhaps I should have refrained from that particular comment, but let me put it this way. Taz certainly provided reasons for his opinion, and when you asked what made his opinion "rational", one could wonder if you thought his reasons to be so faulty as not even to be worth commenting upon, which could seem pretty insulting. Now perhaps this comment does not add substance, but in that case I would have to wonder how your comment here would.

And what is this thing about "rational choice theory"? He provided reasons for his opinion. Again I would ask you, what are the flaws in his argument? How is he wrong on either facts or logic? What other questions could be possibly relevant here?

His argument here might be very flawed. But we don't know why you would think that.

Taz can answer any way he wants, or not answer, but I would have to say that the ball is still in your court.

It was just to pull your chain, Arne.

Okay Rla. I still don't know what you think was lacking in Taz' reasons. Maybe something was, but you did not say what it was. That was my main point.

I agree.

But I think if you choose based on current events you are going to lose.

You have to choose the person you are most comfortable with.

The economy could take a downturn and then Obama would be screwed.

McCain will definitely pick someone with economic experience because he has zero and has admitted that so it will probably be Palenty or Portman or Meg Whitman.

In my mind, you need balance on a ticket. Biden offers no balance if Obama believes his strength is foreign policy.

Where's his economic strength? Bayh offers a little of both and provide better balance as well as a trusted face from a red state.