Why "Radio Silence" Can be a Good Thing in VP Selection
Posted August 19, 2008 | 05:32 PM (EST)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-clemon...e_b_119933.html
Obama's campaign is really smart. They have the blogging and media communities jumping at every flick of the Obama campaign's collective pinky -- wondering what this gesture or that might reveal about who will be selected as Obama's running mate.

I'm fascinated by the tension that has built up over this selection process and think that almost anyone but Evan Bayh is going to get thunderous applause -- mostly because folks will be relieved that the wait is over.

Sources can be wobbly, and anyone trying to reach out to insiders runs the risk of being drawn into a trap or being fed false or just unintentionally incorrect information.

But my best guess today -- as I've said for days now -- is that Obama's choice is Joe Biden.

In contrast to the netroots and progressive community's "surge of concern" over the former momentum of Evan Bayh's selection -- a wide range of support exists for Joe Biden.

Biden polls well with working women, with white working class males, with Hispanics, and perhaps most importantly -- with the elderly and with elder, politically active Jewish-Americans who give a disproportionate amount of money politically in comparison to the population size of Jewish-Americans in the U.S. And Biden, on the whole, is liked by the netroots and progressive communities -- and the blogosphere in recent days has embraced him.

There could be a sleeper candidate, or Obama could change his mind.

But what I think I know is that Senator Obama has decided with a 98% factor of certainty on his choice. Obama is able to change course if need be between now and the VP announcement if something unexpected shows up in the political marketplace about his as yet unannounced but probable running mate.

Tom Daschle and Evan Bayh were called and told they will not be 'it' according to several sources. I don't have anything on Tim Kaine -- other than insiders tell me that Obama has decided against him -- mostly because he doesn't help check off the foreign policy box or experience box. I just don't hear much about Kathleen Sebelius so am not counting her as a strong candidate.

Wesley Clark and Bill Richardson were not seriously considered according to sources -- and Jack Reed, who Obama likes a great deal, would not allow himself to be vetted. I don't believe Chris Dodd was high on the list.

Sam Nunn was knocked out by progressives, and this blog may have helped with regard to his unreformed position on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."

Hagel would be a game-changing choice on a few levels -- but one of those levels could produce a strange scenario in which his selection could anger enough super delegates that they would revolt and hand Hillary Clinton a surprise convention victory. That means Hagel is not a real option.

Hillary Rodham Clinton would be a shocker -- a move that would both force everyone to catch their breath and say 'wow' while at the same time animating Republicans who were asleep with their own candidate's blandness to arise and work against an Obama-Clinton win. Essentially, I think Obama has decided against Hillary and what he fears would be a dysfunctional presidency with her -- even though an Obama/Clinton ticket is one of the few combinatiosn that looks like a knock-out punch to McCain and the Republicans.

But that leaves Joe Biden, who was recently traveling in Georgia and surveying the situation there. In typical Biden style, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman specified where Russia had crossed inappropriate lines but he did so without squealing in some hyperventilating manner like so many other pundits and observers have. And he left portals open to explore what is right, and what is effective and in American interests regarding future such situations as Georgia and NATO. He didn't jump behind Georgia full stop on everything. Biden was judicious -- and we need more of that.

But has Biden heard a word from Obama or his team?

My sources say NO.

According to one source, there has been total radio silence.

Well, be thankful for radio silence I guess when other candidates for VP are getting phone calls saying "Sorry....but we look forward to working with you in many other ways in the coming years."

The word that Obama has not communicated with Biden makes him, in the estimation of many, the likely candidate -- as Obama knows that Biden will accept on a moment's notice. I confirmed this with a person very close to the Delaware Senator.

The thinking is that the moment a VEEP candidate gets the positive nod from Obama, the candidate then tells his spouse and family -- and they can't help but tell close family and friends, and then bloggers like me get the drift and put it out there. To keep it quiet and the decision un-firm continues the buzz, hype and dominance of the media by Team Obama -- and also keeps Obama's options open until the last possible moment lest something unexpected pop up.

Intrade, which is a futures prediction market, confirms much of what I have written. The last trade has Biden surging 19 points to 50% probability of selection.

Tom Daschle and Evan Bayh were called and told they will not be 'it' according to several sources. I don't have anything on Tim Kaine -- other than insiders tell me that Obama has decided against him -- mostly because he doesn't help check off the foreign policy box or experience box. I just don't hear much about Kathleen Sebelius so am not counting her as a strong candidate

Intrade, which is a futures prediction market, confirms much of what I have written. The last trade has Biden surging 19 points to 50% probability of selection.

What is interesting is the roster of other rankings:

Biden 50%

Kaine 15.5%

Bayh 12.7%

Sebelius 13.9%

Clark 12.9%

Clinton 9.3%

Dodd 3.0%

Rendell 2.0%

Gephardt 5.0%

Bloomberg 1.5%

Gore 3.0%

Cohen 2.0%

John Edwards 0.5%



Did you catch that last bit? Wow. . .what a fall.

It's amazing that a grass roots effort effect THE PEOPLE really appears to have
ended Bayh's chances 100%.

The people are actually listened too

Now, that is CHANGE for the better, CHANGE we can rely on CHANGE we are looking for

When the people have their voices heard

win one for the little guy

And it will create a surge of goodwill because basically, aside from Bayh and Hillary,
Obama's fans are AOK with anyone else

WIN ONE FOR THE PEOPLE
CHANGE FOR THE BETTER

TGINB

Its 6am on the east and we got some dedications on WCGCS
we send these out to Evan...
congratulations on NOT being the VP
Thank God and Obama he listens to his fans

you're not the one you want
you're not the one we need
you're not the one we're looking for babe!

bob dylan
it ain't me babe
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImpKzFXO1WI

johnny cash and june carter
it ain't me babe
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkeBgz_7brI...feature=related

reese and joaquin as june and johnny
it ain't me babe
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0Uq2cJXJhI...feature=related

Its a red herring...

But you can fall for it if you like -- until the fat lady sings it ain't over baby...

Bayh By a Hair?
August 20, 2008 8:24 AM

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/20...-by-a-hair.html

It has indeed descended into silliness, this speculation.

Does it mean anything that the wife of one of Sen. Barack Obama's veep finalists, Susan Bayh, just got her hair and nails done?

Or that she has also told neighbors that she's sorry about the media pack about to descend upon her Washington, DC, neighborhood?

Does that mean anything at all?

How about the news that Gov. Tim Kaine will campaign with Obama on Thursday as Obama hits the commonwealth of Virginia on his bus tour?

And while we're all reading the tea leaves, others are looking at the tee-shirts.

ABC News' Susan Rucci points out that at this on-line tee-shirt vendor the big seller is Obama-Clinton, followed by Obama-Biden, and then Obama-Richardson.

Cotton and fury, signifying nothing.

the fat lady not only sang, she sang 54 songs and had 12 encores

and if Bayh were to get it, we are all finished. The USA as we know it has ended

I fully expect to be stabbed in the back. The Clinton's have done that to me personally in 2000 2002 2004 2006 so why should this year be
any different

Anyone who actually liked Al Gore knows the Clinton's destroyed everything they ever touched with their family mademan status

The only thing left to lose, is everything. And Evan Bayh would be the everything who enabled the entire planet to end.

Because everyone says it isn't Bayh and because everyone says it is Biden...its Bayh -- not Biden...

Published: August 19,2008Send to a friend
Op-Ed Contributor
BAYH-OBAMA ! - It just makes common cents!
By Will Roberts

http://newsblaze.com/story/20080819181514w...b/topstory.html

With the release this week of the decided Veepee, I thought I would throw in my two cents about the possible choice for the office of the next in command.

Remember back in World War II, well most of you don't. But back then they had a slogan for the war and it was "Buy War Bonds" It was a way for Americans to help support the country during its time of need.

Well it's conceivably possible that this slogan may come in to play again here in 2008, only it will sound like this: BAYH-OBAMA! - It just makes common cents! Okay, I added that last part. But these last few days Senator Evan Bayh has been seen hanging close to the heels of Mr. Obama. Maybe just to show his support or maybe to make sure the red carpet does not have ripples in it.

Now, the last thing I want to do is be labeled as a gossip columnist. However, I don't think it is possible, mainly on the fact that Gossip is what I consider to be Katty banter, you know trash talking, no merit, no real sources and what I do is more like Horse sense, based on common sense and truth.

Anyhow, these two have been seen in and around town. Normally a candidate will blow in with the wind and then whisk out even quicker. Politicians truly define the term "One night stand". Seems as though Obama decided to stick around Hoosier town just a little longer, and some think this is related to Mr. Bayh and the courting of the VeeeP!

This VeeeP prospect deserves a real hard look at. From the first glance on the newswire Mr. Bayh looks like John Edwards. But since the discovery of Mr. Edwards Alien baby, he might just be watching from the sidelines.

Mr. Bayh has some of the qualities that Obama needs to strengthen his case to the American voters; sound fiscal management, economic growth understanding, a good track record and most important a state that has been Republic for most of its life, Indiana, with the exception of the LBJ landslide of 1964.

Of course with all this bad weather, our country Democrats might just be able to loosen some ground below and create another earth moving landslide with this ticket. Plus when McCain turns Mitt Romney lose on the country, Obama will need to balance out his ticket with a good old << Strike that >> a fresh new face to balance out Mitt Romney's good looks and financial background. Below is what I found on the Indiana website about Mr. Bayh.

"The top priorities of his administration were sound fiscal management, economic growth, and improving education. He favored investment and innovation in education, and state funding for education increased every year of his term. During his two terms, he added 350,000 jobs to the Indiana economy, oversaw the largest tax cut in state history ($1.6 billion over six years) and amassed the largest surplus in state history as well ($1.6 billion)."

talk about red herrings

taz don't look, there is a sardine sticking out of your ear

The Obama Veepwatch, Vol. 9: Evan Bayh
Tuesday, August 19, 2008 6:20 PM
By Andrew Romano
In which Stumper examines the Democratic nominee's possible--and not-so-possible--vice-presidential picks. (Previous McCain installments: Bobby Jindal; Mitt Romney; Charlie Crist; Tim Pawlenty; Rob Portman; Joe Lieberman; Tom Ridge. Previous Obama installments: Ted Strickland; Jim Webb; Wes Clark; Hillary Clinton; Kathleen Sebelius; John Edwards; Joe Biden; Tim Kaine.)




(Alex Brandon / AP Photo)
Name: Sen. Evan Bayh
Age: 52
Education: Indiana University (undergrad), University of Virgina (law)
Resume: Former two-term Indiana governor, current two-term Indiana senator

Advertisement
Source of Speculation: The chatterati. With the hours dwindling until the deadline for Obama's vice-presidential announcement, conventional wisdom has coalesced around a core group of three contenders. As Jeff Zeleny reported in this morning's New York Times, "going into the final days, Mr. Obama was said to be focused mainly on... Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware." And according to at least one report, "top Democratic Party officials are expecting Sen. Barack Obama to select Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh as his running mate as early as midweek." In the final feeding frenzy before the veep roll-out, when only Obama, his wife Michelle and perhaps a top adviser or two actually know whom the nominee plans to pick, one man's hunch is as good as another's.

Backstory: Bayh has been a staple of speculation since at least June, when he broke with veepstakes protocol (smile, blush and say you plan to keep your day job) and confessed that he'd accept the job if offered. "I don't think it's the kind of thing you say no to," he told MSNBC on June 26. "The answer to that is yes. If you care about serving your country, that is the kind of thing that you do." In the months that followed, Obama further fueled the fire by appearing twice with Bayh in Indiana--once on July 16, and once on August 6. For much of the summer, Bayh occupied the top slot in Chris Cillizza's much-read Veepstakes rankings, and the Bayh buzz peaked earlier this month with premature "revelations" and bogus "leaks." In the past 36 hours, the chattering classes have may have moved on to Biden--but that's no reason to believe Bayh isn't Obama's pick. In fact, the opposite is just as likely.


Odds: At this point, only "The One" knows. But it's easy to see why so many people have thought for so long that Bayh would be Obama's best bet.

For starters, he's the only hybrid candidate on a shortlist dominated by old Washington pros (Biden, Sam Nunn) and young, inexperienced "change agents" (Kaine, Kathleen Sebelius). As a former governor and current member of Senate Armed Services Committee and Select Intelligence Committee, Bayh would provide his prospective boss with the executive experience, practical domestic policy expertise and foreign-policy credentials that Republicans say Obama lacks; meanwhile, at a youthful 52, he's also a member of Obama's post-Boomer cohort who would help Democrats cast the choice between the tickets as generational in nature--a choice, the thinking goes, between the oldest person ever elected to a first term as president and a pair of handsome young leaders. (Think Clinton-Gore '92.) That's a unique qualification. What's more, Obama has a real chance to win Indiana--a state that voted for George W. Bush by 20 points in 2000 and 15 points in 2004, but where the Illinois senator currently has a narrow lead in the polls. Picking Bayh--the son of a former Indiana senator, he swept his four statewide races by record margins and has enjoyed approval ratings as high as 80 percent--could easily tip the Hoosier State into the Democratic column. And Bayh's bond with working-class white Midwesterns hit hard by manufacturing losses--a group reluctant to embrace Obama--might help the ticket in nearby Michigan, Missouri and Ohio as well.

Even Bayh's supposed weaknesses start to look like strengths upon closer examination. Widely considered "vanilla" or "boring" by Beltway insiders, Bayh would, according to Cillizza, "be a charisma drain" on the wildly charismatic Democratic nominee, "break[ing] up the logic of the ticket [by] turning Obama into a conventional candidate in a year when out-of-the-box appeal is the hot commodity." But while it's impossible to imagine anyone abandoning the ticket because of an unexciting No. 2, it's pretty easy to imagine voters turned off by Obama's flash feeling reassured by Bayh's substance-over-style approach to politics. Not to mention the fact that Obama needs an on-message surrogate (and an effective sidekick) more than a fellow celebrity. Then there's issue of Bayh's voting record. A former chairman of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, the Indiana senator has angered liberal activists by supporting a ban on so-called "partial-birth" abortions and co-sponsoring the 2002 Iraq War resolution--a stance that contradicts the core rationale of Obama's candidacy. But the truth is, the number of moderate swing-state votes Obama stands to gain by choosing a centrist--Bayh was also known for stressing fiscal responsibility, lower taxes, job creation and lean government while governor of Indiana--far outstrips the number of defectors or stay-at-homers such a choice would create on the left. (You think these guys are going to vote for McCain?) Finally, as national co-chair of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, Bayh said some things about Obama--like "the job of the next president is not to be entertainer in chief," for example--that would inevitably show up in Republican attack ads this fall. But the symbolism of choosing a former Clinton confidant would more than compensate the inconvenience.

That said, it's undeniable that Bayh's stock has plummeted in recent days. The reason, we suspect, is trust. Given that Bayh was always the "safe" pick--and, as a Clintonite, something of outsider (if not an antagonist) in Obama's world--it's difficult to imagine that the Illinois senator ever felt any personal excitement at the prospect of a partnership. Then comes word this morning, via Bloomberg News, that Bayh "may face questions about potential conflicts of interest from his wife's work on seven corporate boards that paid her more than $837,000 last year"--including a medical group awarded a $24.7 million federal grant after being recommended by Bayh to the National Institutes of Health; a Indianapolis radio-station operator that published Bayh's 2003 memoir; and E*Trade Bank (Bayh sits on the Senate Banking Committee). Bayh's spokesman told Bloomberg that he's gone "above and beyond what is required under Senate ethics rules'' to prevent possible conflicts. But one can't help but wonder whether Obama didn't think back to John Kerry's advice from last spring (as reported by the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder) when given this information by his veep vetters Eric Holder and Caroline Kennedy. Choose someone, Kerry told successor, that you trust completely. Don't expect the process to build trust. Don't choose someone with the expectation that you'll develop a trust.

We'll see soon enough whether Obama agrees.

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/arc...-evan-bayh.aspx

right now --- all things are equal...my friend...

They are intentionally creating a buzz for Biden so when they announce Bayh it will be a surprise...

Why would the campaign keep saying he is in the mix and then have the other two candidates in the mix be giving hints like they are the choice, but not Bayh?

Why?

Because in this media age, they have to do things to juke and jab --- and throw them off the scent...

Someone is going to have to eat torta de cuervo!

so, so naive

if they would do that, they would pick HILLARY

who brings more to the table than Bi does any day
not that I want her

Hillary is the one. How naive of you to think otherwise.

We are all being played.

But it will be fun just to see it not being bayh, something to remember before we are all taken on that one way train to the gas chambers

and if what you said is true

VICE PRESIDENT SEBILIUS because the media is so biased they don't see her standing there
just like Hillary didn't see Obama because he was black and she and bill do not like blacks.

so that's a two fer

jab
jab
ropeddope
off the one corner, into the other
down for the count
bayh is toast
so stop being bayhist

Indianapolis is only a hop, skip and a jump from Springfield...

Not with Hillary's baggage and the Bill factor my friend...

They need a candidate who is not as much of a star - a candidate that will not sabotage or upstage their candidate --- they don't want a co-president they want a vice president...

If its Clinton -- its Clinton -- and I will support the ticket --- unlike you ---but I continue to believe its Bayh -- and will be...because it makes the most sense...

Biden is a ruse to get people to stop opposing Bayh.

I like that -- stop being Bayhist --- I am Bayhist -- the first to admit it...

Don't Buy McCain

Bayh Obama!!!!

I told you why Sibelius has no shot --- Hillary's supporters would go crazy and do everything in their power to support McCain and see that Obama would lose...

It has to be a white male if its Obama --- because a lot of those PA and OH voters would jump ship if it were any woman but Clinton...

I am sure you would rather Bi go first

just what is needed as a slogan BiObama

the posters known as marine probably will copy and paste that for months

thanks taz...Obama needs friends like you...

and I told you otherwise

you are wrong.

just admit it, all is forgiven.

besides, Hillary is still plotting to take over

Bayh does not upstage Obama experience and personality wise like Clinton and Biden might...

Bayh i s back as one of the top two again...he just won't go away...

Obama's Vice Presidential Running Mate Search Nears End
Clinton Odds 50:1; Bayh, Biden Top List as Democratic Candidate Keeps Pundits Guessing
By JAKE TAPPER
ALBURQUERQUE, N.M.
Aug. 18, 2008—
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Politics/story?i...1700&page=1

With just one week to go before the Democrats open their 2008 nominating convention in Denver, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is giving no real hints about his vice presidential pick.

Pundits are left trying to interpret the television appearances, Obama's campaign schedule, denials and even a trip to a foreign hotspot to handicap the Democratic veepstakes.

By one calculus, Delaware's Sen. Joe Biden, who made a quick trip overseas for a first and assessment of the confrontation between Georgia and Russia, may have become the front-runner.

But Obama is scheduled to be in Virginia this Thursday, giving him a perfect moment in the days before the Democratic National Convention to anoint Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine as his running mate.

Whoever it's going to be is scheduled to give the speech of his life at the convention next Wednesday. He -- or she -- may want to start working on a first draft.


Top Veepstakes Contenders Emerge
Here's how the veepstakes stand at the moment:

Sen. Joe Biden: He is probably the favorite right now, "which means he's not going to get it," ABC News' chief Washington correspondent George Stephanopoulos said with a grin on "Good Morning America" Monday.

Biden is head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and would bring strong international credentials to the Democratic ticket.

He is a forceful debater and "would appeal to working class Catholics in places like Pennsylvania and New Jersey," Stephanopoulos said.

On the negative side, Biden would be seen as a Washington insider.

"Obama is not looking for that," Stephanopoulos told "GMA," since it would clash with Obama's theme of change. And the voluable Biden has been afflicted in the past with "foot-in-mouth disease," Stephanopoulos said.

Gov. Tim Kaine: The youthful Virginia governor and Obama are "simpatico," Stephanopoulos said. They have campaigned frequently together and would present a ticket of two fresh-faced outsiders.

Kaine made the Sunday morning talk show rounds, stoking interest that he remains on Obama's short list.



Clinton a Dark Horse for Obama Veep
On the downside, an Obama-Kaine ticket would have two candidates who are so new to the national arena that they could be attacked for being light on experience.

What may also be working against Kaine is the Democrats have designated his predecessor, former governor Mark Warner, to be the convention's keynote speaker. It would be unusual, if not unlikely to have two key speakers from the same state.

Sen. Evan Bayh: The Indiana senator would help Obama win the Hoosier State, which Obama desperately wants to win.

It would be the first time the Democrats would win Indiana in a presidential contest since 1964. Bayh has boyish good looks and hefty national security experience, which would also bolster the credentials of the Democratic ticket.

Working against Bayh, however, is a soft-spoken, some say bland manner that makes some tacticians wonder whether Bayh would be able to fit the running mate role of an attack dog against Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican candidate.

Bayh auditioned for the attack dog role Sunday when he attacked McCain over his tough talk about Russia's invasion of Georgia by raising questions about McCain's well-known temper.

"John sometimes, he's a good person, but he's a little bit given to this kind of bellicose rhetoric, which has a tendency to inflame rather than to defuse them," Bayh said on CBS' "Face the Nation."

Naming Bayh as his running mate would also run the risk of losing Bayh's Senate seat to a Republican, a potential threat to the slim Democratic margin in the upper chamber of Congress.

Dark Horse: That could be former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn, who has been a close Obama adviser on foreign affairs, particularly Russia, Stephanopoulos said.

Besides giving the Democratic ticket the foreign affairs gravitas that it currently lacks, having Nunn on the ticket would give the Democrats a shot at winnng Georgia.

"That would be huge," Stephanopoulos said.

Nunn, who is socially conservative, would create friction with some of the party's activists, particularly gays and lesbians.

But the most intriguing longshot may be Obama's former rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.

"You could never say never," Stephanopoulos said. "If you give me 50-1, I'd take it."

What about Tim Kaine? I'm thinking it will be Bayh or Kaine.....

taz- why don't you print out all the articles for the entire day

I will give you the next hour all to yourself

go bayh your heart out

Obama outlines VP criteria
AFP Published:Aug 20, 2008

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Barack Obama has laid out his key criteria in a vice presidential pick - somebody who will be the diametric opposite of Dick Cheney - but did not air any names.

With speculation rife about who the Democratic White House contender will choose as his running mate, Obama said he wanted a true partner in government who has integrity and is unafraid to speak their mind.

“Here’s what I won’t do,” the Illinois senator told a raucous crowd of 2,600 people at an evening rally here, launching an outspoken attack on President George W. Bush and his secretive and enormously influential deputy, Cheney.

“I won’t hand over my energy policy to my vice president. I won’t have my vice president engineering my foreign policy for me. The buck will stop with me, because I’ll be the president,” Obama said.

“My vice president also, by the way, will be a member of the executive branch, he won’t be one of these fourth branches of the government where... he is above the law.”

Obama stayed clear of dropping the names of any potential candidates for his VP nominee, with an announcement expected any day now.

The New York Times reported late Monday that Obama had narrowed down his search to Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh and Delaware Senator Joseph Biden, who is a foreign-policy veteran.

1. Obama did say: “I want somebody who has integrity, who’s in politics for the right reasons.

2. “I want somebody who’s independent, somebody who’s able to tell me ’you know Mr president, I think you’re wrong on this and here’s why’.”

3. The candidate will have to “share my passion... someone who’s mad right now that people are losing their jobs and mad that people are seeing their incomes decline and wants to rebuild the middle-class in this country,” Obama said.

4. Above all, he said, “I want somebody who is capable of being president,

5. who I trust.”

Bayh has all of these...

Graham will not admit it -- but Bayh has integrity -- he is independent --- which Graham sees as a minus -- but I see as a positive --- he is passionate -- though dull -- more than capable of being president after 20 some years of public service... and if Obama is comfortable with him --- believes him to be loyal -- then the trust bond is there...

These are the same criteria that JFK used to select Johnson.

Bayh can be the same type of VP.

Shhhhh.... don't tell Taz.


I believe Biden will be the pick... given that McCain's biggest advantages are military / foreign policy. I believe Biden would be viewed as a heavyweight in these areas and would take away a key strength of McCain.


So... don't tell Taz. No need to upset him or have him get worked up about the Bayh vs Biden choice.


OK... carry on.

Okay..my husband says Biden...I say Bayh...reading those tea leaves again.... I bet we're both wrong.....

OK... It's
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Hagel

I like Tim Kaine.

But he was just elected Governor and did not have much experience before that -- he is new. Obama and he are great friends. He would be a great Chief of Staff but VP --- Obama's biggest criticism is inexperience. Kennedy had much more experience than Obama and because of his youth he selected LBJ. So, Obama really needs someone with more gravitas.

Also, Kaine is relatively new to campaigning whereas Biden and Bayh have been more in the spotlight.

If Obama goes with who he has the best relationship with it will be Tim Kaine.

But I think that he wants to rebut the experience issue -- but not too strongly -- by going overboard with Biden which would highlight the issue too much IMHO.

The only reservation I have about Bayh is whether he can be the attack dog that Obama needs.

Biden can be -- but his recklessness could also be a liability.

Sharing an alma mater with Chuck I would strongly support his choice -- but the Democratic faithful might jump off the reservation...

We are both graduates of the University of Nebraska though he's in Omaha and I was in Lincoln...

I very much doubt Obama has a death wish.

Just my opinion. Nothing concrete to support that. But I do know RFK detested Johnson to an inordinate degree. And it wasn't just differing political philosophy.

I think we're all going to get a surprise...but maybe not.....then again...maybe so.....

A reservation about Bayh.

Sounds like a little hedging of bets here....

Seriously though I believe that would be another one of the reasons that Biden could be the choice.

Obama wants to remain positive... in the face of a growing McCain / GOP assault... and Biden could go on the attack very strongly and take the fight right back to McCain... who has been getting a free pass on negative campaigning.

You are right on both counts.

Obama does not have a death wish.

Since the Secret Service started watching presidents more closely there has only been the Reagan attempt that really got close...

RFK wanted to tell Johnson he was off the ticket but Jack wouldn't let him...

They had a strong and bitter dislike. BUt I also think they respected each other. Kennedy did not want to run in 1968 --- and be disloyal to Johnson -- but finally his heart told him he had to do what is right and he relented...

But interestingly, Johnson became President and kept Bobby on as AG --- until Bobby could not take the Vietnam escalation and ran for NY Senator...

LBJ was a loyal Kennedy person...he carried on the Kennedy legacy...

I've never been afraid to see the warts on my candidates...

I have posted a negative article or two on Bayh...

I always believe its better to go into a situation with both eyes open instead of one closed and hope for the best...

Bayh is not perfect.

BUt people in IN trust him.

I think people in the Midwest would trust him to sell Obama.

How he'll play in the South?

I do not know. BUt he looks the part and hopefully his red state folksy language will sell the ticket.

LIkely so.

I still would not count Hillary out. I think it is between Biden, Bayh and Clinton right now.

Choosing Hillary I believe would be a desperation move.

Obama would have to see deterioration in voting blocks to McCain in order to choose her.

I do not think that is happening, but who knows.

I'm confident Clinton will not be his choice for VP.

As I have said, Biden would be fine with me. I do not think he is the best choice, but he would be a good choice.

The problem I see is that Obama has said foreign policy is a strength of his. It would look pretty awkward to pick someone for VP in your area of strength...which would highlight this as a possible weakness...

Its sort of like Gore picking Lieberman to try and shield him from Clinton ethics questions...all it did was highlight the Clinton issue...and backfired IMHO...

And I'm taking a long weekend to Saratoga so this is my last day before the choice so I have to get it all out...

I guess we wait until Saturday to find out. I do know with all the names being floated around, if he chooses one of those, he will be picking someone who voted for the Iraq war.

Obama has to get someone in the VP slot that can take the heat - because Obama isn't going to win if the ® keep him on the defensive as they have this past month.

Clever!

Funny Graham -- I cannot think of anyone who would have come up with that "bi" Bayh -- connection - but it was not Marine who started it -- it was you...

And I asked you about that before --- what do you have against bisexuals that you would abbreviate Bayh's name like that...

Is there something wrong with that sexual orientation in your opinion that includiing it would discourage people from supporting the candidate?

Has even Bayh suggested anywhere that he is a "bisexual"?

Why would you be so thoughtless as to try and sully a candidate by one's sexual orientation like you are?

Are you that inconsiderate?

Have you really graduated high school?

This is my one concern.

Can Bayh dish it out?

I agree wholeheatedly.

If Bayh cannot dish it out then I would say go with Biden -- though I do not think he sells well in OH and the midwest...but what do I know...

I wonder, though, if Obama can choose a VP who voted for the Iraq war. Wouldn't that undercut the case for his sound judgement on opposing the invasion?

That was my point, Amy. Although since he's voted for funding and all of that since his opposition speech and has come more to the center .. and if they apologized nicely - perhaps that makes it okay.

It won't be okay with the RNC though - it will be a thorn for him until election day.

On the other hand, since so many republicans and dems are now opposed to the war, have "changed their minds", maybe it would be okay if they have publicly expressed regret for their votes.

Have a good weekend... and get it all out today !!!

It's always a problem trying to win by running a positive campaign when your opponent goes negative.

Oh... but McCain wouldn't do that.

No of course not... except when he has no chance of winning otherwise. Desperation overrides promises.... and the GOP and McCain couldn't run a positive campaign if their lives depended on it. The writing should have been on the wall as soon as Rove's name was heard... and the memories of 2004 should be quite clear.

Obama needs to go on offense and attack the flip-flopping pandering distorting McCain with extreme prejudice.

What Obama would do is make an effort to unite the party ---

There are those of us who were adamantly against the war, and those of us who were adamantly for the war, but whether you were for or against the war, that time has passed, and now we need to be united for moving forward.

What is important now to recognize is that the war was a mistake. This mistake was made based upon the Bush Adminsitration's misrepresentations to the Congres and the American people. We are human. HUmans and humanity have made mistakes. Mistakes can be forgiven but they cannot be forgotten. But those who refuse to admit that they have made mistakes are condemned to relive them. The Democratic party today stands united in acknowledging that the circumstances that led us into Iraq were based on intelligence fixed around a mistaken policy goal. BUt we are for moving forward. We are for uniting this nation. We are for moving on and making the best of a bad situation.

During the last four years many mistakes have been made. During the next four years we hope to correct many, if not all of those failings.

The important issue is not that this ticket, that this nation be perfect -- but that it strive for perfection --- that is strive to form that more perfect union and that it do that united as one.

This is what I am doing today with my choice of Evan Bayh as my Vice President.

Evan and I are friends and neighbors.

And we are committed to moving this nation forward united as one party, as one nation bringing the change America wants and needs.