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tomhye
I know 5 day projections or single computer models aren't reliable, but if either the GFDL or NOGAPS are right 94L could be a MAJOR problem for the Gulf in 8-12 days or the east coast in 8-14 days.
Indianhead
I don't like it either...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg
Indianhead
Seems like before we get to 95L...Herr Gustav may visit...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Tropical Storm Gustav Forms in Caribbean Near Haiti (Update1)

By Brian K. Sullivan

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Gustav developed out of a tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea today and may become a hurricane.

USN Gustav Projection

Gustav, packing winds of about 60 miles (96 kilometers) per hour, was located about 225 miles south-southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti, and was moving northwest at about 14 miles per hour, according to National Hurricane Center advisory.

``We could see a major hurricane by the later part of the week,'' said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist with Planalytics Inc., a forecaster based in Wayne, Pennsylvania, that caters to businesses including energy companies. ``Right now, it looks like we have a very dangerous hurricane taking shape over the central parts of the Caribbean.''

Hurricane warnings are posted for the southern coasts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Gustav is expected to produce from 5 inches (12.7 centimeters) to 7 inches of rain over the island of Hispaniola, with isolated areas receiving as much as 25 inches.

Rouiller said he expects Gustav will develop into a hurricane by Aug. 27. The warmth of the Caribbean's waters and upper atmosphere winds are conducive to the formation of a major storm, which he defined as Category 3, with winds of at least 111 mph, he said in a telephone interview.

Two Possible Tracks

The hurricane center computer models suggest two possible tracks, one north into the Atlantic off the coast of Florida, and the other westward toward the Yucatan peninsula.

``Our first official track somewhat splits the difference,'' said the center's bulletin.

Rouiller said he disagrees with that approach and says he is predicting the storm will head toward the Gulf of Mexico, home to about one-fifth of all U.S. oil production.

``The threat to the Gulf remains,'' Rouiller said.

Gustav is the seventh named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's forecasters predict 14 to 18 named storms will develop this year.

In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Julio was located about 15 miles south of Santa Rosalia, Mexico, on the Baja California peninsula moving north-northwest at about 14 miles per hour, according to a hurricane center bulletin.

Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for the east coast of Baja California and for the Mexican mainland.


It's rock and roll season.
tomhye
Several models have him hitting the Gulf, they're scrambling to catch up, DR & Haiti just changed TS warning to hurricane watch. Not big yet, but strong TS heading from warm to hot waters, has the potential to deepen rapidly or even explosively. Opposite of Fay, building solid structure first instead of size, NHC is saying could be hurricane by morning, I expect it by 11PM EDT. SHIPS model looks wrong planet, if he enters the GOM as a cat1 he'll become a major hurricane unless we're blessed with really great shear.
Indianhead
Oh he's coming alright...and he's already got me thinking north.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/A...ull/Latest.html

But, somehow I think it will go west of La....just a hunch though.

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