http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/A...ull/Latest.html

I'm makin' some reservations...

We just will not know for sure for a few days yet.
I am restocking on water tonight.
Some of the computer models show it going South.
I can't wish this on anyone but some parts of South Texas have very few people.
Prayers sent your way my brother...
You know you have a friend in Texas!

get out your pirogues, guys

He slowed down to 4 mph from about 8 very rapidly, there's actually less chance of a NOLA strike than a few hours ago, but still at least 10%. 6 days out it's a 2/3 chance that he'll be within 300 miles of the projected path under normal conditions, with him wandering SW he could even head back to Haiti, all sorts of uncertainty just crept in. The computer mmodels that were supposed to be out about an hour ago aren't even widely available because they have no idea how to handle the data. Highest probability is projected track will edge East, but as I said nobody knows til he starts really moving again.

Besides, from what I've been reading you'd have to go a good 300 miles anyhow, might as well find out if it should be to the NE or NW before making reservations. I'd have everything else ready though.

Actually...I've talked to my wife about getting the baby (28) out of New Orleans by tomorrow
and having them ready to leave Friday. By Monday morning we should know just
where he's gonna land and I guess I'll stay again. The office is already checking chain saws
and I saw guys unloading pallets of charcoal brickettes. They'll have to top-off the 800-gallon
diesel tank for the building generator and they're organizing all shifts for response...they'll
all be trying to stock up on some sleep as well as food and water.

I have most the stuff I need...just some
just fresher stuff will fill-out the cache......
actually this drill is pretty SOP around here...
there's a slight rush at the beginning...
then it's preparation...oh well...
there goes the Labor Day Weekend.

By Friday afternoon we should have a good idea if he's coming to your neighborhood, now they're pretty sure it'll be somewhere between Mexico and the Bahamas (inclusive). How he gets across or around Cuba will tell the story, at least for general direction. By about 12 hours into the GOM they should have a good fix as long as he's moving at least 10mph ( probably to within 30 miles per day either side of projected path).

Then again, after Fay I'm not ruling out a Des Moines landfall.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

It may go west of us...or at least that's the latest...hold on Marine,
that commo HQ in The Capitol may be required. Your (our) politics may
not be popular...but when the shizen contacts the turbine...front and center.

Doing a run-check on a generator from Tucson this weekend...another brother.

We are a varied lot...politically...but politics never has anything to do with
an Act of God. It's why I can't freak too much on elections...I care, but it's measured.

It's looking just west of you right now, the way he's growing I wouldn'twant to be on the dirty side. Slowed down enough that it's still a bit crazy, he doesn't even look to clear Cuba on time. Hopefully we'll see how he makes his turn North with plenty of time for everyone to know at least the general area of landfall, seems to be the season for storms that don't use turn signals.

Best of luck to you and Marine and all who might have to deal with Gustav or Hanna! At least with the slowdown you might be able to enjoy at least part of your Labor Day weekend.

Hey y'all... we in CA give you all our prayers, and prayers have a way of getting answered.

Take care!

Still not using turn signals but liable to hit where IH is with at least TS and if he decides to run through town probably as a cat2.

Now jogging east of projected path but NHC not shifting much, I wouldn't trust anything from Tallahassee to Houston. He's getting big and bad, most of the way now he'll be switching between intensifying and dropping down but growing so looking like a big cat3 at landfall.

Now vacation in central or north Alabama, Georgia, San Antonio or Austin? All have plusses and minuses (Nashville or Memphis might not be bad either), just can't see getting out of the way and still possibly having to ride out a TS. Better to duck twice than get hit once.

If you trust traffic and reservations should have a WAY better idea in 12-24 hours.

NOLA should get out now, parts of I-10 already heavy traffic.

Anyone trying to leave NOLA now should check the traffic cams and plan from there, as of 12:40PM local I-10 and Power and I-10 and Clearview were very slow bumper to bumper but the other cams looked like good flow.

He's a 4 now, and just about to slam Cuba.

It sure isn't looking very good right now. From what I've seen NO is doing a fantastic job of getting people out and away.

FEMA says Gustav soon to be rated Category 5

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/08/30/...Bush-Gustav.php

Take care Indianhead! and any other members in this hurricane's path.

Thank our wonderful ex-chariman of the DNC for his wonderful thoughts on Gustav...

I think Obama should demand they both apologize. I know, no politician does that to people who have much sway over the base, but I think he should.

IH,

I know you'll be safe, but be careful if you stay, if he hits wrong you could have a strong cat2 or weak cat3 cruising through town. In any event I hope you have to decline giving him a speeding ticket as opposed to having to decline giving him a parking ticket (unless you catch the dirty side in which case I hope he obeys all laws and drives safely).

Thanks lady ....sometimes reality overcomes politics...and those who realize that...
well they are human beings...as native Americans called them.



Forgive me, but I bought a box of .44mag jacketed rounds two days ago...my people are safe.
You know I'll feed before I shoot...but I'm a Boy Scout. If they ask....I feed...if they bum rush...shame on 'em.
Tickets are stupid in these times...none are looking for revenue...we are lookin' to protect and serve. Dull, but real.
I expect to cook for poor folk...beans and rice probably. With peppers and ham. The way I understand it...as I do
for the least of these...I do for my Lord. I'm simple...shoot me...the dumb a*s*s who cooks up a pot of rice and beans.
Sometimes that's the language of love...no children in my area will go hungry...it's home...they are my people. I have
a black state policeman living a quarter mile from me...he can serve it up...it's not about credit...I don't want to be known.
But I do want to be laid...oops...never mind...I'll talk to Mrs. Indianhead.

I hope Gustav treads lightly on your area and leaves quickly for places the rain is needed.

I'm sure glad you're inland a ways and not in western Cuba, bad day for those folks even though all were probably evacuated.

We are actually looking forward to Gustav's arrival here, which some models are suggesting is quite possible. It's a very rare event for us to get hurricane remnants through DFW, as they usually veer east or west of us. (The ones that hit SE Texas and LA usually go east; the ones that hit South Texas go west.) We could use the rain and the cool-down.

A sincere prayer for the safety of our CGCS family and all others in the path of Gustav......

Prayer for Hurricane Season

O God, Master of this passing world, hear the humble voices of your children. The Sea of Galilee obeyed your order and returned to its former quietude; you are still the Master of land and sea. We live in the shadow of a danger over which we have no control. The Gulf, like a provoked and angry giant, can awake from its seeming lethargy, overstep its conventional boundaries, invade our land and spread chaos and disaster. During this hurricane season, we turn to You, O loving Father. Spare us from past tragedies whose memories are still so vivid and whose wounds seem to refuse to heal with the passing of time. O Virgin, Star of the Sea, Our Beloved Mother, we ask you to plead with your Son in our behalf, so that spared from the calamities common to this area and animated with a true spirit of gratitude, we will walk in the footsteps of your Divine Son to reach the heavenly Jerusalem where a storm-less eternity awaits us. Amen.

Originally dedicated to the victims of Hurricane Audrey in 1957.

- Fr. Al Volpe, Cameron Parish, LA

I have a friend...a sportswriter for the Denver Post who did Audrey in the rafters of a high school gym in Cameron Parish.
Thank God we have progressed in warnings and evacuations. I'll be able to cook for poor kids...because of a man from Tucson.
It's why I'm here. I may not agree with policies...but I love people...like the rest of the CGCS family...politics don't care for folks...
people do...and that's why I love y'all...no matter what. And...Marine you looney bastard...I know you're working too.
Politics is politics...service is service...and when you key-up those sat phones for responce...I'm proud to be on the same team.
As you do for the least of these my breathern...you do for me...and Jesus wept...as we will, after the work is done.

Thanks canjcat...every prayer is heard.

I live on the desert, I can identify, trees need deep water they only get in floods.

New stories say McCain and Palin are in Mississippi so they can open convention from projected Hurricane site by satellite...................

Does that feel like hurricane path victims are being used? Is this insulting or appreciated?

Indianhead, please let us know if we can help in any way.

BTW, Sandra said that she was getting out this morning and going north of Baton Rouge. Sounded cool as an iced cucumber.

Indianhead,

I hope all goes well for you and yours. I know how I would feel if that storm were bearing down on North Central Florida right now! I live about 50 miles inland of Cedar Key and it has happened to us before. We did get some much needed rain from TS Fay, many places flooded because she was moving so SLOW! Even though she was just a TS, it was terrifying getting ready for her because my husband has been working in Ohio and Illinois all summer and it was just my son and I doing all we have learned to do to prepare. Of course, there are a lot we make sure is done from early summer on. That's what native Floridian do. It was the last minute things that were scary. I kept thinking, "I hope I haven't forgotten anything important!" It was a different feeling when I was the only adult around to make the decisions. It was good experience for my 13 year old, though. One day he'll have a family and home to protect, and I want him to learn to respect the storm and protect what is his.

Good luck and God Bless,

Thanks for the news on Sandra...but BR is gonna get hit too...she's a Louisianian...we put up with the
storms in order to have the food and lifestyle. We're a bit nuts...but ya can't find kinder folk, IMHO.

Tom has already helped with a generator...this year...so I can loan mine...he's a crazy bastard and
an adopted Louisianian...if he didn't love the desert so...I'd demand he slush through the swamp.

We're gonna get it kicked...sure 'nuff...but we've learned to fight...even when we lose...hardcore nuts...that's us.
We know to pray and put our seats in the up-right position...so say a prayer for us if ya have the time...love.

(my truck and bike are full - bike's inside - I can strap on a chainsaw and get anywhere after it passes...Lord willing.)
Pegatha and TammyJo know...Marine is on station...and we will care for our people...as best we can. Thank y'all for
caring...it means something...to me. See y'all on the other side.

FWIW, I just looked on the pilot's weather site, and the low pressure center is 995mb, which is not really all that low. And the rainfall associated with this storm is only moderate.

Still a good idea to "get your butts moving" as Nagins so eloquently put it, but it may turn out NOT to be the storm of the century.

At least it will detract from the McSame Fiesta in St Paul.

You must have checked the wrong system his core pressure is 957mb, down from 962mb and he's projected to drop 6-12" on areas he hits hard. Currently top winds are still only 115mph but his hurricane strength windfield extends 65 miles from center (was 50) and TS windfield up to 220 miles from center (same size as Katrina).

Not the storm of the century, but a hell of a lot closer to that than whatever you looked up.

Nope.

Right system, but it has indeed deepened.

And the rain intensity has increased as well.

Mother nature always keeps us guessing.

Nope! Hasn't been 995mb since well before Haiti, no guesswork on that.

mebbe I need to get better glasses.

Could have misread a number or it could be either a mistake on a map or one of those instances where an intermediate reading is more prominent than the core reading.

He is deepening though, now 952mb, respectable rate of intensification.

It's raining hard now...don't now how long this
cell-tower connection will hold...but we're good.
If I disappear...don't fret...it's just a thing.

No, it's not "just a thing". This world would be so much poorer without you. God Bless you IH. Prayers matter, and I'm sending you mine.

Well so far the prayers seem to be working it's coming in a weak Cat 3.

I'm glad it's coming during the day...easier to see it moving.

If you want to see a local radar:

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/myownradar/100/index.html

We live in the northwest quadrant of the intersection of I-12 and I-55.
Love and kisses y'all...I'll check back in as long as the cell service on this
laptop phone card works.

I must admit making a pizza for breakfast...I've been up since 4 a.m. (a usual thing)
and if the power goes off I won't run the 220 Volt stuff (like the oven)...and I wanted
that baby with the extra cheese and pepperoni I pile on. The girls are still sleeping,
along with the four cats. Later...

Indianhead, Stay safe. Our prayers are with you and all those in the path of this storm.

He just dropped to a cat 2 and is within about 1.5 hours from eye-wall landfall.
It's moving 16 mph, which is good...toward the northwest...away from us...so maybe
four of five hours of TS winds should be all we get...thank you Lord...winds about 20 mph
here at this time...moderate rain...later

I'm glad it has weakened. Hang in there!

Here is how it looked a few minutes ago:



And another shot from WLWTV:

If the dry band (clear on radar)keeps getting pulled in (it was over Lake Ponchartrain a few
minutes ago) and pulls the rain bands out quick we may be very blessed.
Still got power but my wife was talking to a friend in Berwick (between
Morgan City and Franklin) on her cell and it just went out...the eye wall
is headed her way...

An excellent application of General System's Theory...

Yup...us selfish people always think it's about us...but the earth knows better.

Still good here ...40 mph and light rain...people to the south, west and east all having it worse...
somehow we've been in a slot between bands for the past few hours. Prayers continue.

Update -

Sandra and kin are in Atlanta! Took them twelve hours, and they arrived at 4:00 a.m.

Looking at radar it looks like the eye has gotten as close to IH as it's going to, so now it's just more wind and rain and hopefully no tornadoes.

Now its Hannah and South Carolina and TD #9

The levees held.

Good preparation or good luck?

You might have spoke too soon, It appears two of them are about to come down.

Excellent!



Yup, just heavy rain...I've talked wtith folks for a couple of mile radius...sounds like a coupla dozen trees down
one of which went through the roof a surgeon's house, but he's okay. Power is out all over, but generators are running.
If the rain will stop before more trees give in....it should be okay here...






Keep me up....no cable and the local station I was getting went off-air when he
went through Baton Rouge...I need to know about NOLA flooding...I guess I'd better
get that crank radio down...can you believe CGCS is about the only server I can hit? Go figure...nice work guys...cudos michael...Later...

Overtopping and seepage in NOLA, 6' in an industrial park,6-8' in the port, looks so far like those levees held but since 2 ships to be scrapped and a barge were banging around I won't trust the inspections until the water level is down.

Private levee on Clearwater Canal about to give, attempts to shore up have failed. It's south of NOLA, if you need name of town & parish I'll look again, memory didn't last long enough.

Looks like when this patch of rain & wind breaks you might get some outer band action but nothing more with structure, water vapor looks like a lot lighter for you starting in the next couple hours with maybe a fair patch of rain sometime tonight.