Should be a real interesting day here in the big apple.

NY Democrats hope primaries won't slow momentumBy DEVLIN BARRETT | Associated Press Writer
September 7, 2008

WASHINGTON - New York Democrats have been on a winning streak, and in Tuesday's primary, their chief goal is to maintain momentum as they take aim at picking off more Republican officeholders in November's general election.

This year, with no statewide seats up for grabs, the biggest prizes on the primary ballot are congressional seats in the House of Representatives. Some of those openings are due to long-awaited retirements; one, in Staten Island, came after Republican Rep. Vito Fossella was charged with driving drunk and then admitted having a secret child with a woman other than his wife.

As shocking as the Fossella revelations were, they are actually only a small part of the New York GOP's woes. The long-term statewide trends are far more damaging: Republicans have been reduced to just six of 29 House seats in New York, having lost three in the 2006 election.

"The irony is that New York was always a kind of political backwater in national congressional elections, because it was hard to lose your seat if you were an incumbent in New York," said Rep. Steve Israel, a Long Island Democrat who recruits House candidates.

"Now, New York has become a battleground. You've got six Republicans and three Democratic incumbents, so we've got nine total seats that are competitive. That makes New York a center of gravity, politically."

Israel insists the primary is "irrelevant" to their chances of picking up more seats in November, but several promising Democrats have already expended a great deal of money and energy heading into Tuesday's contest:

_ In Fossella's district, the 13th, comprised mostly of Staten Island, the hangover effect of the congressman's messy personal life is a primary in both parties.

"It was like a meteor hit the district," said Brooklyn Democrat Steve Harrison, who challenged Fossella in 2006 and this time is facing off in the primary against Democratic party bosses' chosen candidate, Staten Island city councilman Michael McMahon.

Harrison said the expected low-turnout will work to his advantage as he brings out his more left-leaning supporters.

On the Republican side, the tumult didn't stop with Fossella's departure. Several top-tier GOP candidates declined to run for the seat, and the man the party eventually settled on, Frank Powers, died unexpectedly.

That leaves an internal Republican contest between former state assemblyman Bob Straniere and local doctor, Jamshad Wyne.

"I have an understanding of the issues and my opponent has none," charged Straniere. "The only support he has is his own checkbook."

_ In the 21st district centered around Albany and Troy, five Democrats are vying to replace retiring Democrat Michael McNulty. Of the five, former state assemblyman Paul Tonko and former Hillary Rodham Clinton staffer Tracey Brooks hold the biggest advantages. Having three other candidates _ Phil Steck, Darius Shahinfar, and Joseph Sullivan _ in what could be a low-turnout primary could dilute the leaders' votes and lead to a surprise result. Whoever wins the primary is almost certain to capture the seat in November.

_ The 26th district, stretching from the Buffalo suburbs to the outskirts of Rochester, is witnessing another rough-and-tumble political season. Republican Tom Reynolds is retiring, and there is a three-way race among Democrats seeking to take his place. Jon Powers would like to become the second Iraq war veteran elected to Congress, but he has been slugging it out with millionaire Jack Davis, a strident opponent of free trade in an area that has been hard-hit by manufacturing losses.

A third candidate, Alice Kryzan, is also in the mix but has not generated the same degree of attention _ or heat _ as Powers and Davis.

In both the western New York seat and the Staten Island race, Democratic officials would like to see their chosen candidates, Powers and McMahon, emerge strong enough to win a general election in traditionally Republican-leaning districts.

_ In Brooklyn's 10th congressional district, longtime lawmaker Edolphus Towns is fending off another primary challenge from someone claiming he is out of touch with his constituents' needs.

Towns is challenged by Kevin Powell, a writer, activist, and former cast member of the inaugural season of MTV's "Real World," in which an unlikely collection of young people are filmed living together in varying degrees of disharmony.

As in the 21st district, the Democratic primary winner is practically guaranteed a victory in November in the largely Democratic district.

Primary Day Predictions Covering Assembly, State Senate And Congressional Races
by: robert.harding
Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 19:10:05 PM EDT

Last week I authored a post highlight some of the key primaries throughout New York. With two days before Primary Day, it's time to predict how these races will turn out.

ASSEMBLY
AD-64: Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver is being challenged by two younger Democrats: Luke Henry and Paul Newell. I don't think neither candidate has what it takes to overcome the enormous incumbent advantage Silver enjoys. That said, Silver should see this as a warning shot across his bow. No one - even the Assembly Speaker - will receive a free ride if they go along with the culture in Albany. Hopefully Silver sees this for what it is instead of blowing this off as just two token challengers who mean nothing to him.
WINNER: Sheldon Silver.

AD-102: Gary Levine and Jonathan Smith are facing off on Tuesday for the right to move on and face Republican incumbent Assemblyman Joel Miller on November 4. Levine is fairly new to the Democratic Party while Smith is a lifelong Democrat who has been a strong advocate for environmental causes. The Poughkeepsie Journal has a great piece covering this race and giving a general idea of where these candidates stand. This will be close, but I think Smith can pull it out.
WINNER: Jonathan Smith.

AD-144: Assemblyman Sam Hoyt is facing a challenge by Barbra Kavanaugh, who is the Responsible New York-backed candidate in this race and is looking to capitalize off of Hoyt's recent scandal. Hoyt is still too strong though. I don't see Kavanaugh doing enough to beat Hoyt even with a scandal out there that is includes new revelations week-by-week.
WINNER: Sam Hoyt.

STATE SENATE
SD-21: Sen. Kevin Parker defends his incumbency against two New York City Councilmen whose terms run out in 2009. Simcha Felder and Kendall Stewart are challenging Parker. There are interesting characters in this primary. However, this might be like AD-64, where there are two challengers instead of one and that can take away the ability of one challenger or the other from being able to topple an incumbent.
WINNER: Kevin Parker.

SD-25: This is a primary to watch on Tuesday. Sen. Martin Connor's incumbency is in danger. Daniel Squadron presents a great threat to Connor and has what it takes to beat Connor on Tuesday. He's got the money and he's got key support from Sen. Chuck Schumer. I have Connor losing on Tuesday but if he doesn't lose, it will be quite a scare for him.
WINNER: Daniel Squadron.

SD-43: Brian Premo and Mike Russo are the competitors in this Democratic primary in Joe Bruno's old district. Premo has the advantage here because he has been in the race longer. Russo does have a lot to offer, including his role with Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand. This might be close too. I could see Russo winning, but I'm leaning towards Premo.
WINNER: Brian Premo.

SD-46: Sen. Neil Breslin has his hands full with this primary. Charlie Voelker and David Weiss are taking on Breslin. This won't be easy. Weiss looks like the biggest threat here, but it will be tough to take on Breslin. Breslin has a machine behind him. That will be tough to overcome.
WINNER: Neil Breslin.

SD-61: This seat could be a Democratic pickup in November. However, the Democrats need to get through an ugly primary first. Michele Iannello, Joe Mesi and Dan Ward are going after the Democratic nod. This race seems to be between Iannello and Mesi. Ward is not a very good primary candidate. He's a conservative Democrat and conservative Democrats usually don't fare well in primaries. That leaves Iannello and Mesi. Mesi has name recognition going for him. Iannello is arguably the progressive candidate in this race. It could go either way. I'm picking Iannello by a hair.
WINNER: Michele Iannello.

CONGRESS
NY-13: Mike McMahon is being backed by the DCCC and is the odds-on favorite to win this primary AND win the general in November. Steve Harrison is probably the more progressive of the two, but Harrison has had his share of struggles. McMahon is in what many see as a very "likely Democratic" district now. Thanks a million, Vito Fossella.
WINNER: Mike McMahon.

NY-21: This one is too tough to call. You have great candidates all around. Tracey Brooks, Darius Shahinfar, Phil Steck, Joe Sullivan and Paul Tonko are battling in this primary that will more than likely decide who represents the 21st congressional district. I think it comes down to three candidates: Brooks, Steck and Tonko. After that, it's too close to call. Either one could pull it out. Ergo, no prediction for this race.
WINNER: No Prediction.

NY-26: I'm on the ground here in NY-26 so I have a unique perspective here. While I am a strong supporter of Jon Powers I also have been waiting to see how much Jack Davis' ads impact this race and how Alice Kryzan's rise in the last week impacted the race. I had a friend who was out canvassing and making phone calls and he found that many more people were supporting Powers. That is not the first I have heard such information. Kryzan's rise is too little too late. Davis has lost support. Powers has the backing of many individuals in this district. He's going to win the primary to set up a Powers vs. Chris Lee match-up in November.
WINNER: Jon Powers.

I gotta ask-

WHERE is Hillary in NY getting out the vote for the NY Primary

Hillary has all but disappeared...

NYers need to come out to vote Tuesday, and to stick a stake in the republicans.... it could keep them down for years.

A few results

NY-26

87% reporting

Kryzan - 4,280 47%
Powers - 2,952 33%
Davis - 2,952 20%

NY-13
213 of 523 reporting

McMahon - 3,694 71%
Harrison - 1,513 29%

SD-25

234 of 266 reporting

Squadron - 11,046 56%
Connor - 8,687 42%

AD-64

53 of 94 reporting

Silver - 3,582 69%
Newell - 1,144 22%
Henry - 446 9%

RAMOS, PHILIP R Democratic 36 64.29%
CABRERA, WALDO Democratic 20 35.71%

SD-21

226 of 226 reporting

Parker - 9,334 49%
Felder - 6,994 37%
Stewart - 2,638 14%

SD-33

192 Of 192 reporting

Espada - 4,588 60%
Gonzalez - 3,113 40%

NY-21: Tonko Wins Handily
by: phillip anderson
Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 23:08:38 PM EDT
652 of 652 Precincts Reporting - 100%

Tonko, Paul 14,827 39%
Brooks, Tracey 11,329 30%
Steck, Phillip 7,046 19%
Shahinfar, Darius 3,879 10%
Sullivan, Joseph 657 2%


U.S. House - District 21 - GOP Primary
348 of 652 Precincts Reporting - 53%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Buhrmaster, James GOP 4,428 70%
Vasquez, Steven GOP 1,917 30%