http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/A...ull/Latest.html

My preferred prediction site plots Ike into Texas just north
of South Padre Island Saturday with winds in excess of 115 mph.

Like South La., these folks know to haul baggage.

I hate to see the beach erosion hit South Padre...it's
a great place to bicycle to some really cool upscale and
neon-vogue restaurants, breakers and bikinis. And, when
the bikers ride in, it's like Hog Heaven once a year.

But, the Rio Grand Valley (rivaling CA and FLA for produce)
will probably love the rains...for NEXT year's crops. I just hope
the poor folks in Matamoros and Brownsville don't get it too bad.

Looks like this bad boy has a hankering for Tex-Mex.

Luck Marine...PM if I can do something, or put somebody up.

Maybe, but his heading north of forecast points may not be a wobble, lost most of his structure (due as much to dry air incursion as disruption from crossing land) but he looks like he's choosing a path based as much on feeding (looks to cross the narrowest part of Cuba) as steering currents at this point.

The way this year has been the folks at NHC (who've been doing an even better job than their usual great) must feel like resorting to throwing darts at a map.

They are waiting until tomorrow to call us up into active duty I think cause the state is trying to save a little money.

This makes the fourth time in just a bit over a month the Texas Guard has been called up. I've been on active duty for 24 of the last 34 days.

Uncle Sam is a notoriously slow individual to reimburse the states for disasters. After Gustav they told us not to expect our pay checks for a while, the Comptroller will not issue any checks for at least 30 days.

Meaning no disrespect for Mexico but I have my fingers crossed this thing will keep wobbling southward and plaster them instead of us.

It's coming in maybe were Dolly did; those folks don't evacuate then, they hunkered down and stayed.

Since they got recent experience at it they may well have second thoughts on doing that this time.

South Texas isn't a bad place for Ike to be headed, so long as it doesn't score a direct hit on Corpus or Brownsville. There are vast, sparsely inhabited areas of South Texas where it could make landfall with minimal damage.

Looks like Central and North Central may get some tropical rain too.

Computer models:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...el.html#a_topad

The models are a little wishy washy. I just hope it stays south of Freeport...way south.

Current guess is just North of Corpus Christi on the 12-13 packing winds
of 155 miles per hour -Catagory 4 (just 1 mph short of a catagory 5).

This don't look like it's going to be one to "ride out", unless you're
a big Wizard of Oz believer. If predictions turn out, it's going to be
really strong.

This thing is starting to look something like Katrina...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFVS.JPG

Two of the models have it coming too close for comfort to Houston. One of the models is the same one that accurately tracked Gustav. Still keeping our fingers crossed here. The problem is that if it shift further east, a lot of people here will not have evacuated because of the snafu that was Rita 3 years ago. All we can do is wait. I'm thinking by Friday morning we should have a pretty good idea if it is going to stay well south of us or not. The worst case scenario for us is if it hits near Freeport at a Cat 4, it could flood over half a million homes here in Harris County and could devastate parts of Galveston. I dont want to wish harm to our neighbors in South Texas, but I really hope it stays in that direction. A lot easier to evacuate Corpus than Houston.

Well, I for one am getting scared as heck. Not just for me, but especially for my livestock. I have no barn for them all, and I don't think they can withstand 110mph winds tearing at them for hours, I'm afraid they'll breech the fences. I've asked for help, but too early to expect an answer.
My home is surrounded by 60+ year old oak trees. If one falls, others will, and my whole life goes up in wind and rain.

Immediate problem: getting yard items picked up and put away. My helper doesn't follow directions well, or this wouldn't be necessary, but good help is hard to find.

Ya'll say a few prayers for me? Thanks.

Ladies and gentlemen the latest is a Freeport landfall.
And, with the size of this thing - Galveston and Houston
are in real danger. If y'all don't work for public service,
or professional first response agencies I'd request you
evacuate now. Take back roads if ya know 'em.

It appears it will hit after dark Friday...you have today and tomorrow,
which will start getting tropical by 10 a.m. or so from this size.

If you stay...you have my prayers...
I petition the God of Abraham...in the name of my savior
Jesus of Nazareth...that His angels be stationed round about you
and your's. His grace is sufficient. Peace be with you.

I'm not in an evacuation zone and they are recommending us to just hunker down. The freeways are packed with people under mandatory evacuation. I went through Alicia so I know basically what to expect although this is the worse case scenario for us because we are on the dirty side. Pray for us if you pray, or just send some good thoughts our way.
I expect heavy flooding, hurricane force winds and power outage so I may not be able to log on tomorrow evening.

Ike is moving 50-80% more water than Katrina, projections now saying worst storm surge in the Atlantic basin in 40 years even if he hits as a cat1. He's expected to intensify and already waves of 30' are in the Gulf. Hurricane winds extend 115 miles and TS winds extend 275 miles from center to the NE, he's bigger than Katrina and it's still uncertain if he'll strike as a cat1, cat3 or cat4, but cat3 is expected. Still has double eyewall but should complete EWRC well before landfall, if he stays on projected course the 42 NM outer eyewall could shrink to the 9 the inner eyewall is at last report, if he decides to head north cooler water and shorter time should keep winds down but would still have cat5 level storm surge.

Reports of many stations in W Houston running out of gas, plan accordingly.

"Hurricane Ike could cause widespread damage in the Galveston and Houston, Texas
area on a level not seen since Hurricane Alicia tore a path of destruction through the city in 1983. "

From another good source page:

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headli...9&year=2008

We're some hunkerin' fools ain't we?

I tell my wife...everything's gonna be alright...unless it ain't...in which case...we'll deal with it then.

(makes no sense, except it does)

Makes perfect sense, especially with Ike, nobody's sure how to read him. His structure is downright bizarre, normally flight level winds are 10% higher than surface, his are 50% higher! Last HH only showed cat1 at surface but they're calling him cat2 because he's cat3 at flight level. Will he strengthen much or stay aloft? If he strengthens how much will that shift his path? If he stays with the crazy wind difference how much longer does he stay a hurricane after landfall and how much more tornado activity will he generate?

Good year to be a Prozac vendor at NHC.

Best wishes to our Texas folks. Sending good thoughts your way for sure.

That it is. I have never gotten so many corrected NHC emails before... tough season for them, too.

Man this baby is building...the Navy site (above) now has the storm building until
there are hurricane force winds extending from North of Corpus to Orange! That puts
tropical force winds from Corpus to Lake Charles! Hang on y'all...like Pecos Bill.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalwe...d=moreheadlines

Meteorologist: 'Ike is a Freak Storm'
Evacuations underway in Galveston and Houston

Probability of experiencing tropical storm force surface winds from Ike. The first sentence of a recent post by Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters puts Hurricane Ike into proper perspective:

Hurricane Ike's winds remain at Category 2 strength, but Ike is a freak storm with extreme destructive storm surge potential.

Ike is continuing west-northwest today across the Gulf of Mexico, with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph, on track for a late Friday or early Saturday landfall, most likely somewhere between Corpus Christi, Texas, and the Texas-Louisiana border. Intensity forecasts at landfall range from Category 1 to 4, with the National Hurricane Center calling for Category 3 strength (winds 111-130 mph) when the storm comes ashore.

The Houston Chronicle's SciGuy summarizes the conditions that may be coming to the upper Texas coast, including the Galveston/Houston area:

*Tropical storm force winds starting midday Friday, lasting about 24 hours
*Hurricane force winds before midnight Friday night, lasting about 12 hours
*Peak winds of 110-115 mph, especially near where the eye makes landfall
*Storm surges 15-18 feet above normal
*2-4 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 6-10 inches

Masters mentions that, although the winds within Ike's eyewall have not yet increased as much as one might expect after last night's steep drop in the storm's central pressure, Ike is now larger than Katrina with hurricane force winds extending 115 miles out from its center and tropical storm force winds out to 275 miles.

All blessings and good thoughts coming your way, Grammy, Bigtom and RWS!

My thanks to you and to IH as well, for his lovely prayer.

Just got a canned announcement from the chief of police. Mandantory evacuation for those in mobile homes and in low-lying areas. Voluntary evacuations for others. 100mph SUSTAINED winds expected to last several hours, perhaps as long as 12.

My town straddles IH-10 for those of you who check maps. Quite a way from the coast.

Best of luck Didi...hopefully the winds won't get as far west as you are but I bet you get some tropical storm conditions unless it keeps moving east. TS winds are like 250 miles on either side of the eye.

Thanks Peg

thanks pie

Well the outter bands came through Southeast La. at about 5:45 a.m. and we lost power for four hours.
Had the generator running in 15 minutes...it's off now...
Sister and Swiftboat bro-in-law (north Houston) have picked up his mom in Orange and are enroute to Dallas...so they are good.

It looks like it may come in a cat 3 or high 2...so that's a plus. But, I can't believe Galveston, Houston et al aren't running
contra-flow (all lanes of interstates going away)....they need to learn from us coon-asses on that.

Trees waving again here even with the storm south of us...hold on Houston, y'all are gonna rock-and-roll tonight.
Anybody need to leave...PM...we have been helped by Texas soooooo much...we can't turn y'all away.
Good thing they got guys like Marine on duty...funny how cops and troops are nazis...'til ya need 'em.

What can I say? People see what they want to see and some fantasize about boots severe discipline.

The wind has just started to pick up here....

We have lots of food and water for both people and dogs.
We have our wind up radio and our propane grill.
And most importantly we have the prayers of our good friends...

It does not look so good for Kemah and Galveston.
The water is already lapping over the seawall.

I will try and check in..

GOD BLESS OUR NATIONAL GUARD,TEXAS GUARD, FIREMEN AND POLICE!!

I think you guys are going to get a lot of this too ...take care! I dont even want to attempt to get on the roads. 45 N is still backed up and the idiots still havent opened up the contra lanes....they finally opened some shelters on the north side of town.

Here's the latest forecast, and it offers tremendous relief to me; the winds are expected to be much less than I've been making myself sick worrying about. Huge difference between 40 and 90-115. Rita offered 55mph gusts, which was bad enough, 40'll be a breeze. (No pun intended.)

I think if y'all are 10 miles from the Gulf and can do without
power a few days....y'all are okay.

Grammy take you cue from the livestock...if they freak, strap
yourself to the mast.

But, from what I hear there is a fleet of trucks and helicopters
on stand-by and top-flight sat-phones ready to coordinate.
I think y'all are gonna be okay...and I pray.

It's almost dark...and I pray for Texans, who helped Louisianians...
see y'all on the other side...and await the stories of Hurricane Ike vets.

We are there with you in spirit. Be safe.

IH is right about the critters, too.

So far...at almost 6AM, things are OK as far as I can see with regular house lights. Lots of gusty winds which are fightening once in a while. It's starting to rain now and I'm expecting the nasty to turn north anytime now. Wish a big 'norther' could swoop in from CO and smother the dude.

Nice things:

Power still on obviously,
My son called while on his way to Paris to check up on me and promised to call back. Nice surprise!! I thought he was on a rig somewhere isolated.

Thanks for your thoughts and prayers.

For once you need a northerner and they don't show up? Figures!

Glad he didn't slam you, hope the rain was needed.

Grammy-

Thanks so much for checking in. I've worried about you!

Just excellent news Grammydidi. You made my morning. Thank you for taking the time to check in.

Ike evacuee arrested for allegedly firing gun

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — A Hurricane Ike evacuee was being held Saturday after allegedly firing shots in a hotel parking lot after a car struck a luggage cart carrying his 5-year-old son, authorities said.

No one was injured in the Friday night shooting, Nueces County sheriff's Capt. Paul Rivera said.

The 28-year-old Houston man who fired the shots was being held on charges of possession of a firearm and discharge of a firearm, Rivera said.

Authorities said the man's 5-year-old son was riding on a luggage cart about 7:30 p.m. Friday in a hotel parking lot when the cart was struck by a car being driven by a 15-year-old.

The child was jostled on the cart but not seriously injured.

"He pulled out a gun and shot about 11 times," Rivera said of the child's father. It was unclear where the man was aiming; the car was not hit, Rivera said.

The car left the scene. Authorities later located the driver, who had abandoned the vehicle about a half-mile away.

Several other hurricane evacuees witnessed the shooting, Rivera said.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hotstories/5999185.html

http://www.chron.com/news/

Good place to read the latest.

'Course, if you can read this, you probably don't need this advice!

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5998723.html

Some tips to make life more bearable after the storm
By CLAUDIA FELDMAN Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle
Sept. 12, 2008, 10:51PM

Brenda Watzke of New Orleans knows how to live without electricity, gas and water. She and her family were whacked by Hurricane Katrina three years ago. In the past month, they've also been hit by the wet side of Hurricane Gustav and the feeder bands of Ike.

Just one indignity of many, Watzke said, was the sight of the family's FEMA trailer, after Gustav's visit, flipping over and floating away.

She and others have suggestions for local storm victims facing a few hours, a few days or a few weeks without power. Get used to canned food at room temperature, sponge baths and loved ones who may take a long time to completely recover from their losses, she advises.

Leticia Lowe, a spokesman for CenterPoint Energy, has told customers to expect outages that may last at least two weeks.

"In a typical storm, you will have limbs down," Lowe said. "But in this kind of storm, we are going to have whole trees down on power lines."

CenterPoint is bringing in thousands of repair workers from around the country and will rely on a sophisticated computer system to identify neighborhoods without power, Lowe said. In the early going, at least, that means don't call them, they'll call us.

Do call after a few days, Lowe said, if your house seems to be the only one in the neighborhood without power.

Lowe's main tip for surviving days without electricity is to move in with friends or family who can offer a cold drink or some air conditioning.

"We have to work together as a community," she said. "This is when we have to work to pull together."

Boy Scout master and hurricane survivor Brian Duffy offers some food management tips.

Duffy recommends putting juice, drinks and milk in a cooler with ice. That way the family can keep the refrigerator door closed as much as possible and keep perishables cool. The best bet, he said, is to keep the freezer closed entirely for at least the first two days. That way frozen goods will remain frozen even without electricity.

Only when the perishables and the frozen goods are gone should the family open the canned goods, he said.

Anyone who plans to cook on camping gear should do it outside, Duffy said. He also recommends having a bucket of water available just in case.

Managing personal relationships after days without air conditioning or bathing is also a challenge. Often children need a little extra parental patience at these times, said Duffy, a West University father of three.

"Try to remember to slow down and listen to what the children are trying to say," he said.

Paul Charles spent three days in the dark after fleeing to his native Opelousas, La., when Hurricane Rita threatened the Houston area. He and a host of relatives found a haven at the home of his parents, Mae and Rufus Charles. But within a day, they lost power.

Charles, who lives in Third Ward, said they kept the refrigerator closed as much as possible, opened windows in an attempt to stay cool and tried to entertain themselves.

"My parents told stories about how they grew when they didn't have electricity," he said, laughing. "I don't think it made us feel any better, but it was educational."

Charles didn't evacuate for Ike, but he stocked up on batteries, propane for a gas grill and plenty of ice.

Eighty-three-year-old Baton Rouge resident Mac Hopkins relied on an old, 5,500-watt generator to help him through eight days without power following the destructive Gustav.

Hopkins considers it indispensable for life in the Gulf Coast region, even if it does cost $20 a day in gas to operate it.

It was well worth it, Hopkins said, to keep the freezer, refrigerator and ice machine going, along with a few lights, one burner on the oven and ceiling fans.

He ran the generator about 20 hours a day.

"We would load it up before going to bed, around 7 or 8, and it would run until 8 or 9 in the morning."

Houston architect LaVerne Williams has advice for those worrying about oppressive heat. Williams' company, Environment Associates, focuses on earth-friendly construction and energy efficiency.

"Without electricity, you have to find a way to get ventilation," said Williams, "so you need to be in rooms where the windows open. And you're going to want screens, because the mosquitoes are going to be out in full force."

The goal, Williams said, is to create cross-ventilation. Do that by opening the windows widest on the north, northwest and western sides of the house, and open the windows to a lesser degree on the southern and eastern sides. If you have a two-story home, said Williams, do the same thing upstairs.

Beaumont residents Nancy and Chuck Smith have lived through numerous hurricanes and ice storms.

"It's the little things that you take for granted," Nancy Smith said. "If you have no electricity, you may have a hard time getting into your garage. You are basically cut off from the world, there is no Internet or TV. You have to think about living without running water."

Because of downed trees and electricity lines, Chuck Smith advises care when driving down streets, especially if the lights are out and the neighbors are gone.

The Smiths had a small generator they were able to use to power a window air-conditioning unit in their bedroom. But he had to get up in the middle of the night to refill it.

"You have to learn to adapt," he said."But the week I lived without power was one of the worst in my life."

Garden Oaks resident Allyson Faist hardly recommends life without power, but she has learned a few tricks.

She uses old milk cartons to make blocks of ice because they last longer than ice trays. She fills coolers with food items such as margarine and milk so that she can steer clear of the refrigerator.

Perhaps Faist's best trick, however, is accepting what she can't change.

When it's lights out at her house, she plays board games by candlelight. She focuses undivided attention on family, friends, even pets. She reads by natural light.

And when she runs out of things to do at night, she goes to bed. It's nice, she says, to get a good night's sleep.

Finally have power back. Exhausted. Going to go watch TV...have seen no images from the storm.

Glad to see you are OK and back with us.

Cool!(literally)

Glad you got power back so quickly. Ike hit just far enough north to avoid the worst and didn't align in time to develop too much so most of the heavy damage was coastal and surges were only half as high as projected.

Chronicle online has lists of stores and businesses that are open.

Very good to hear from you, RWS.

Thanks all. My area got hit with 90mph winds. Structurally not too bad but lots of fences down, trees, branches everywhere. Lots of glass from office buildings. No gas...or if there is any the line is 50 cars long. All the stores in my area except a few are still closed. The ones that are minimally open, have huge lines. We have some supplies from before but lost everything in our refridgerator. Still have lots of bottle water.

If you need to come...PM...y'all have sheltered us. I am here for y'all.
It's the most basic of understandings. You are welcome. Need a week?
Or two? I got it for ya. Texans earned it...we are in y'alls debt. If you can't
come...PM...we'll come.

New Orleans owes Houston...straight up. Don't hesitate. Aftermath is the worst.

Bigtom, report in!!!!!

Just an update after speaking a little too soon the other day. Now that it's all over, it's almost laughable. HA!

Sat AM after my last post and at 7:33AM I had power. At 7:34, none. It finally came back on yesterday (Sun) evening, after about 36 hours, a visit by EMS to help with my oxygen and a rescue mission by a friend when the O2 was almost gone. Got back this noon after a day with a lady who personifies the term "Southern hostess". She just picked me up in her SUV, all kit & kaboodle, and carried me to electricity.

What a harrowing day and night after the hurricane I spent! Thank goodness for friends, I literally would not be typing this without their kindnesses and wherewithall to step in where I no longer was able.

My thoughts and prayers are with those who are still fighting the upheavels.

I hope all the animals are okay!

They seem to be fine, but I can't get out near them to check. My asst. 'quit' the day before the hurricane, so it was make-do for them as well. Now, it's more problems, as they still have to be fed and checked daily and help is at a premium if at all to be found. I have no more tears of frustration. Please join me in my pity party?????

Thanks IH...I think we are okay now. I would love to get out of here but unfortunately I have to work. I got a little gas today..enough so I'm not panicky and went to the store and restocked some things...no dairy though...they lost it all and havent gotten resupplied. Mainly I'm just tired. I think the lack of sleep and rest is catching up with me.