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Snuffysmith

Central Banks Fail to Solve Credit Crisis

By: Christopher_Laird

Depression on the way - A few weeks ago, I mentioned that the central banks had put up collectively $3 trillion worth of stimulus/backing to financial markets. I also noticed that the big bailouts had about only a one day boost to the financial markets till they did a thumbs down.

Read full article...
Snuffysmith
Fed's Evans Projects a `Very Sluggish' U.S. Economy `Well Into' Next Year The outlook for the U.S. economy is ``very sluggish'' well into next year, while inflationary pressures are easing, said Charles Evans, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president.

Fed Discount Window Loans to Commercial Banks Reach Record $101.9 Billion The Federal Reserve's direct loans to commercial banks rose to a record $101.9 billion yesterday versus $98.1 billion a week earlier as still-high money market rates encouraged more borrowing from the lender of last resort.

Bernanke May Discard Decades-Old Aversion to Meddling With Asset Bubbles Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled an end to the Fed's decades-old aversion to interfering with asset-price bubbles as the financial crisis reshapes some of the central bank's most firmly held views on regulation and monetary policy.

Snuffysmith
Government’s Leap Into Banking Has Its Perils

  • NY Times
  • 10/18/2008 05:59 AM
U.S. Economy: Sentiment Drops by Record; Starts Fall

  • Bloomberg
  • 10/17/2008 03:23 PM
Single-Family Home Starts in U.S. Fall to 26-Year Low

  • Bloomberg
  • 10/17/2008 07:51 AM
Fed Rethinks Stance on Popping Bubbles

  • WSJ ($)
  • 10/17/2008 07:11 AM
As Credit Tightens, Companies Curtail Spending, Expansion

  • Washington Post
  • 10/17/2008 05:33 AM
The $58 Trillion Elephant in the Room

  • Conde Nast
  • Eisinger
  • 10/16/2008 11:24 AM
Snuffysmith

Credit Bubble Bulletin
by Doug Noland | Oct 17

The "Arb" Game is Over

With the bust in Wall Street finance, the dynamics for pricing household, corporate and municipal borrowings have been altered.



Snuffysmith
Government’s Leap Into Banking Has Its Perils

  • NY Times
  • 10/18/2008 05:59 AM
U.S. Economy: Sentiment Drops by Record; Starts Fall

  • Bloomberg
  • 10/17/2008 03:23 PM
Single-Family Home Starts in U.S. Fall to 26-Year Low

  • Bloomberg
  • 10/17/2008 07:51 AM
Fed Rethinks Stance on Popping Bubbles

  • WSJ ($)
  • 10/17/2008 07:11 AM
As Credit Tightens, Companies Curtail Spending, Expansion

  • Washington Post
  • 10/17/2008 05:33 AM
Fallout from financial crisis hammers housing

  • AP
  • 10/18/2008 05:59 AM
A spent force

  • Economist
  • 10/17/2008 05:42 AM
Social Security Benefits to Rise 5.8%

  • Washington Post
  • 10/17/2008 05:37 AM
Banks borrow record $437.5 billion per day from Fed

  • Reuters
  • 10/17/2008 05:31 AM
In Downturn, Families Strain to Pay Tuition

  • NY Times
  • 10/17/2008 05:11 AM
Snuffysmith
Fears of Lehman's CDS derivatives haunt markets
It is a full week after bankers gathered in New York to start sorting out the derivatives mess left by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. We still do not know who is on the hook for some $360bn of default insurance, or how much they will have to pay.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:18AM BST 17 Oct 2008


Lehman Brothers former chief executive Dick Fuld has faced heavy criticism

Ominous talk of big names and big sums continues to haunt global markets, thwarting efforts by the US and European authorities to unlock inter-bank lending. Traders have noted with acute interest that insurer AIG - now nationalised - says it will need another $38bn from the US government, on top of the $85bn bail-out it has already received. AIG is the world's biggest underwriter of credit protection.

Those on the wrong side of these Lehman debt contracts - known as credit default swaps (CDS) - must come up with the money by Tuesday, the next D-Day in the ever-fraught calendar of the credit markets. There has been a deafening silence so far.

There is no easy way of finding out who they are, so every bank and insurer is suspect. The $55,000bn CDS market is "completely lacking in transparency and completely unregulated" in the words of Chris Cox, the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The settlement auction on Lehman CDS contracts last week was in itself a bombshell. Creditors retrieved just nine cents on the dollar from the Lehman wreckage. As Naked Capitalism put it, the bank had "vaporised". The biggest players at the auction were Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank but they were almost certainly transacting for clients.

The insurers of the debt -- a third are hedge funds -- will have to pay 91pc of the $400bn in contracts.

More…

Snuffysmith
Snuffysmith
  • South Korea offers banks aid. Over the weekend, South Korea unveiled Asia's biggest financial rescue package with a $100B government guarantee on foreign loans and a $30B capital injection of U.S. dollars into the banking system. South Korean banks and businesses have found it increasingly difficult to obtain foreign currency, and the move is meant to help banks that need to refinance maturing foreign-currency borrowings in coming months (roughly $80B will mature by June). The government's plan comes amid criticism that South Korea hadn't done enough to cope with the financial crisis and amid fears that broad refinancing problems could send the economy into recession. Asian indices rose on the news, including +2% for South Korea's Kospi index.
  • European countries step up economic efforts. In addition to ING's $13.4B capital injection from the Dutch government (see below), Germany's government is expected to announce today the final details of a €500B rescue package that was quickly thrown together after leaders originally said no comprehensive bailout was needed. The package will include €400B in bank guarantees, €80B in new capital and €20B in loss provisions. Bayerische Landesbank, one of Germany's largest state-owned regional lenders, is expected to draw on billions of euros from the new rescue plan. The U.K. government announced plans to increase public spending projects and borrowing in an effort to pull the economy out of its worst slump in seventeen years.
  • Government funds for ING. ING Groep (ING), the largest financial-services firm in the Netherlands, gets a government rescue package of €10B ($13.4B) after growing losses pushed the stock to a 13-year low. ING fell a record 27% on Friday after forecasting a €500 Q3 loss, and is the first to draw on the €20B the Netherlands made available to financial firms earlier this month. The Dutch government will buy non-voting preferred shares and will appoint two representatives to ING's board. To shore up its capital position, ING will sell its Taiwan life insurance unit to Fubon Financial for $600M. Shares +20% in Amsterdam.
  • Bush to launch financial summits. President Bush, French President Sarkozy and European Commission President Jose Barroso met over the weekend and issued a joint statement pressing for continued coordination to address "the challenges facing the global economy." Bush, Sarkozy and Barroso will ask other world leaders to join them for a series of summits on the global financial crisis, the first of which will be held in the U.S. in November. The aim of the initial meeting is to agree on "principles of reform needed to avoid a repetition and assure global prosperity in the future," while later meetings will focus on specific steps to take. The summits could shape the future of global capitalism, with European leaders favoring greater international oversight while U.S. officials prefer the status quo of national regulation.
  • Cuomo and Garcia join forces in CDS probe. In an unusual partnership, NY State and federal prosecutors have launched an investigation into credit-default swap trading to determine if the unregulated markets were used to manipulate stock prices. Normally, investors buy and sell insurance-like swaps to protect against bond defaults. But recently, spreads on debt issued by Lehman, Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS) and others surged, leading to concerns over their liquidity and a drop in share prices. Some think the CDS market is just a convenient scapegoat for regulators struggling to regain control of a faltering economy.
  • Layoffs part of lower costs at Yahoo. Yahoo (YHOO), which will report quarterly earnings on Tuesday, is expected to announce a substantial cost-cutting plan this week, possibly by tomorrow. The troubled internet giant, with shares down 43% over the past three months, is trying to fight back against stiff competition from rivals (including NWS, GOOG) while struggling with the effects of the economic downturn. The plan will likely include more than 1,000 layoffs, say sources familiar with the matter, marking the second mass-firing of the year. Yahoo's U.S. hiring has ground to a near-halt, and some managers have been asked to identify operating budget cuts of around 15%.
  • GM, Chrysler try to advance talks. General Motors (GM) is trying to move forward with talks to acquire Chrysler in a deal GM sees as a way to boost its cash position. However, sources close to the company say GM is struggling to secure the necessary deal financing. GM is already burning through over $1B in cash each month, and outside money would be needed to realize the much-touted cost-cutting advantages of a merger, including buyouts and severance pay for as many as 40,000 workers. At least one person involved with the talks suggested the government may have to get involved to close the deal and to allow investors to feel more comfortable. GM +4.2% pre-market.
  • Pru eyes AIG purchase. U.K. insurer Prudential (PUK) is in advanced talks with two strategic investors to take a 20% stake in AIG (AIG) and to launch a $15B bid for AIG's Asian business. Under advisement from UBS (UBS) and Credit Suisse (CS), Prudential is negotiating with investment funds in the Middle East and China. If Prudential's deal is successful, it could see huge cost savings in Asia since both firms run big distribution networks there. French insurance giant Axa (AXA) is also said to be interested in AIG's Asian operations. AIG +7.1% pre-market.
  • Exelon bids for rival. Exelon (EXC) offers to buy NRG Energy (NRG) for $6.2B to take advantage of debt-laden NRG's 55% drop in share price since July. Exelon, the largest U.S. operator of nuclear power plants, would pay $26.43/share, a 37% premium on Friday's closing price. An acquisition would create the largest U.S. power company by market value at $40.4B. NRG said it will review the bid and urged shareholders not to act in the meantime.
  • Toshiba secures capacity, SanDisk boosts bottom line. Toshiba (TOSBF.PK) plans to buy outright 30% of the production capacity at its semiconductor JV with SanDisk (SNDK). The companies will split the remaining 70% equally. SanDisk expects to receive cash and cut equipment leasing obligations by about $1B. A purchase will help Toshiba, the world's second- largest flash-memory maker, expand flash-memory output at a lower cost than through buying new equipment. Last month SanDisk shunned a $5.85B takeover bid by world flash-memory leader Samsung. Toshiba may be looking to boost its capacity before SanDisk is acquired.
  • Circuit City looks to sidestep bankruptcy. Circuit City (CC) is considering closing at least 150 stores and thousands of layoffs as an alternative to filing for bankruptcy protection, sources say. Management is trying to avoid a bankruptcy filing before the holiday season, fearing it might cause customers to doubt its ability to provide warranties.
Snuffysmith
Bernanke Backs Consideration of Stimulus, Differing From Bush

  • Bloomberg
  • 10/20/2008 09:28 AM
Deficit Rises, and the Consensus Is to Let It Grow

  • NY Times
  • 10/20/2008 05:42 AM
Job losses spread in Silicon Valley

  • FT
  • 10/19/2008 07:58 PM
Credit crunch will last into '09, economists say

  • San Diego UT
  • 10/20/2008 05:27 AM
State fiscal problems may worsen

  • Boston Globe
  • 10/20/2008 05:25 AM
Snuffysmith
Joint U.S.-New York Inquiry Into Credit-Default Swaps

  • NY Times
  • 10/20/2008 05:48 AM
Bond Risk Rises to Record on Concern of Worst Slump Since '30s

  • Bloomberg
  • 10/20/2008 05:40 AM
Markets hold breath over Lehman’s unwind

  • Financial Week
  • 10/20/2008 08:53 AM
Bailout bill hones ax over exec pay

  • Financial Week
  • 10/20/2008 08:51 AM
European Money-Market Rates Decline on Emergency Bank Support

  • Bloomberg
  • 10/20/2008 05:40 AM
Car lending slashed as default threat rises

  • FT ($)
  • 10/19/2008 10:03 PM
Nervous times for investors in loan markets

  • FT ($)
  • 10/19/2008 08:00 PM
Record inflows into money market funds

  • FT
  • 10/20/2008 12:44 PM
CEO apologies soothe investors—stir up tort lawyers

  • Financial Week
  • 10/20/2008 08:52 AM
Millennium Begins Liquidating Hedge Fund, Report Says

  • NY Times
  • 10/20/2008 07:55 AM
Unregulated Market Faces Test as Corporate Defaults Pile Up

  • Washington Post
  • 10/20/2008 05:52 AM
Insiders’ Share Sales on Margin on the Rise

  • NY Times
  • 10/20/2008 05:44 AM
New law stalls foreclosure filings

  • LA Times
  • 10/19/2008 10:10 PM
Hedge funds hit by 10% asset decline

  • FT ($)
  • 10/19/2008 10:09 PM
Entrepreneurs Feel Squeeze as Venture Capital Gets Scarce

  • WSJ ($)
  • 10/19/2008 09:19 PM
Snuffysmith

Credit Bubble Bulletin
by Doug Noland | Oct 17

The "Arb" Game is Over

With the bust in Wall Street finance, the dynamics for pricing household, corporate and municipal borrowings have been altered.

Snuffysmith
US Market

ETF

Economy

Snuffysmith
New Money Market Investor Funding Facility (MMIFF): Fed To Buy Frozen Assets, Meet Redemptions
  • Oct 21: Federal Reserve (FR) will help finance purchases of up to $600 billion in assets from money- market mutual funds (MMMF) which have suffered redemptions from investors seeking the safety of government debt. The program start date should be announced by the end of this week. It is scheduled to expire on Apr. 30, 2009, unless it is extended by the Fed
Click Here For Full Analysis
Snuffysmith

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
by SA Editor Rachael Granby



  • Third time's the charm? The Federal Reserve launched its third attempt to ease money markets strains, announcing a program to fund purchases of up to $600B in money market mutual fund assets. In its official statement, the Fed said the initiative "should improve the liquidity position of money market investors" and increase their ability to meet future redemption requests. The Fed, which will announce the program's start date by the end of the week, could lend up to $540B to five "special purpose vehicles" established to buy CDs and commercial paper from highly rated institutions. Around $500B has been withdrawn from prime money-market funds since August.
  • Bernanke stands behind stimulus package. Federal Reserve's Bernanke voiced his support for a congressional stimulus package, testifying a stimulus "seems appropriate" for an economy that will be weak for several quarters and faces "some risk of a protracted slowdown." Democrats are considering a $150B initiative, though some economists are pushing for twice as much, arguing that significantly more money will have to be pumped into the economy and the banking sector in order to survive the downturn. Policy makers are also pushing forward with efforts to overhaul government regulation of the financial sector, calling for greater transparency and oversight.
  • Asian countries move to shore up economy. Thailand has proposed a plan for Asian countries to pool $350B, or 10% of their foreign exchange reserves, to help cushion their economies in the event of a global recession. Around $150B would be earmarked for currency protection, if necessary, while the other $200B would be used to buy equities, bonds and fund infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, acting unilaterally, South Korea says it is prepared to follow up its $100B bailout plan with whatever measures are necessary, including a possible fiscal stimulus package, in order to restore confidence in its financial system; China will inject $19B into the Agricultural Bank of China, completing a reorganization of China's banking system that has cost the government $500B so far; and Bank of Japan may announce plans to begin paying interest on reserves deposited at the central bank.
  • Trio creates gas cartel. Iran, Qatar and Russia met on Tuesday and agreed to form an OPEC-style group for gas-exporting countries. Gas producing nations have long discussed the possibility of creating a "gas OPEC" but building a cartel could be difficult since gas markets, unlike oil markets, are mostly fragmented and regional. Moreover, trade volume is relatively small and prices are often pegged to oil, making it harder for a cartel to control prices. The U.S. imports virtually no natural gas from Iran, Qatar or Russia, but U.S. politicians and Western allies worry closer ties between Russia and Iran could harm strategic political relationships.
  • Auto woes continue. Tracinda Corp, the investment company of billionaire Kirk Kerkorian, sold shares worth about $18M in Ford (F) at a major loss and is considering selling its remaining 6% stake, raising concerns about the automaker's health. To raise cash, Ford may have to sell its roughly 33% stake in Mazda (MZDAF.PK), while uncertainty about the future Ford-Mazda relationship sent Mazda shares down by the most in over eight years in Tokyo trading. Kerkorian's move, along with efforts by Cerberus to sell its Chrysler stake, could leave the auto industry short of funding at the same time sales are heading to a 26-year low. General Motors (GM), the preferred buyer for Chrysler, is looking for a large capital injection from an outside investor as a possible alternative to a Chrysler deal, while Chrysler is exploring a possible alliance with Nissan (NSANY) and Renault.
  • Samsung drops buyout offer. Samsung abandoned its $5.85B ($26/share) hostile bid for SanDisk (SNDK), citing tough economic conditions and failure to make "meaningful progress" with the bid over the last six months. A successful bid would have been Samsung's largest acquisition and a good chance to widen its lead over Toshiba (TOSBF.PK). Analysts believe Samsung may launch a renewed bid at a later date to gain access to SanDisk's patents, but a Samsung spokesman said "we withdrew our offer and there should not be further room for speculation." Pre-market: SNDK -10.5% to $13.21. Samsung -2.1% in Seoul.
  • Apple shines after Jobs talks up prospects. Share of Apple (AAPL) are up 9.3% in early pre-market trading after beating analyst expectations despite a contracting economy (see below). CEO Steve Jobs made a surprise appearance on Apple's analyst conference call (transcript), likely to talk up the company's prospects amid a close-to-recessionary U.S. economy and a 54% drop in its shares YTD. "I think this economic downturn may present some extraordinary opportunities to companies that have cash," he said, adding Apple is comfortable with its cash, and doesn't feel it's "burning a hole in our pocket." Jobs told investors Apple, as it always has, understates its results.
  • Yahoo's so-so Q3 gets boost from job cuts. Yahoo (YHOO) reported Q3 net income of just $54M, down 64% from a year ago and in line with consensus (see below). Yahoo also said it plans to cut its global workforce of 15,000 by at least 10% during the current quarter, as part of a broader cost-cutting plan, as CEO Jerry Yang tries to orchestrate a turnaround despite a softening economy and internet-advertising landscape (conference call transcript). Shares gained 5.2% in extended trading, but Cowen's Jim Friedland was circumspect: "Cost cutting is important, but I wouldn't call that a positive longer-term sign."
  • Retail sales. ICSC chain-store sales rose 0.9% last week vs. a year ago and fell 1.6% vs. the week before. Stores continue to face a "tough retail landscape" as consumers spend cautiously. Redbook reported a 0.8% gain last week from a year ago, but a 1.1% fall in October vs. September.
  • Consumers far from confident. ABC's Consumer Confidence Index dropped 7 points in the last two weeks to a dismal -50, one point away from the lowest rating in 22 years of weekly polling, and markedly worse than this year's -40 average.

Earnings: Wednesday Before Open
  • Air Products and Chemicals (APD): FQ4 EPS of $1.26 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $2.7B (+14.5%) vs. $2.6B. [PR]
  • Arkansas Best (ABFS): Q3 EPS of $0.61 in-line. Revenue of $496M (+2.0%) vs. $498M. [PR]
  • Baker Hughes (BHI): Q3 EPS of $1.29 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $3.0B (+12.4%) vs. $3.1B. [PR]
  • Dover (DOV): Q3 EPS of $1.01 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $2.0B (+5.4%) in-line. [PR]
  • Kinetic Concepts (KCI): Q3 EPS of $0.96 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $503M (+22.5%) vs. $507M. [PR]
  • Knight Capital Group (NITE): Q3 EPS of $0.40 beats by $0.16. Revenue of $270M (+31.7%) vs. $212M. [PR]
  • Philip Morris (PM): Q3 EPS of $0.93 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $7.0B (+17.5%) vs. $6.6B. [PR]
  • WellPoint Health Networks (WLP): Q3 EPS of $1.60 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $15.3B (+2.2%) vs. $15.5B. [PR]

Earnings: Tuesday After Close
  • Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN): Q3 EPS of -$0.57 misses by $0.07. Revenue of $218M (+14.9%) vs. $229M. Shares +4.5%. (PR, earnings call transcript)
  • Apple (AAPL): FQ4 EPS of $1.26 beats by $0.15. Revenue of $7.89B (+27%) vs. $8.05B. Sees Q1 EPS of $1.06-1.35 vs. $1.65, and revenue of $9-10B vs. $10.57B. Shares +13.25%. (Briefing.com)
  • Boston Scientific (BSX): Q3 EPS of $0.16 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $1.98B (-3.4%) in-line. Shares +5.6%. (PR)
  • Broadcom (BRCM): Q3 EPS of $0.31 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $1.3B (+36.7%) in-line. Shares +8.7%. (PR, earnings call transcript)
  • Canadian National Railway Company (CNI): Q3 EPS of $1.16 beats by $0.17. Revenue of $2.26B (+11.6%) vs. $2.15B. [PR]
  • Century Aluminum Company (CENX): Q3 EPS of -$0.57 misses by $0.89. Revenue of $552M (+21.5%) vs. $549M. [PR]
  • Cerner (CERN): Q3 EPS of $0.57 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $423M (+13.4%) in-line. Shares +5.1%. (PR, earnings call transcript)
  • E*TRADE Financial (ETFC): Q3 EPS of -$0.09 beats by $0.19. Provision for loan losses triples to $518M. While ETFC continues to make progress toward returning to profitability, it does not expect to report a quarterly profit Q4. ETFC plans to take advantage of the government's bailout plan. Shares +0.4%. (PR, earnings call transcript)
  • Illumina (ILMN): Q3 EPS of $0.22 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $150M (+54.2%) vs. $146M. Shares (PR, earnings call transcript)
  • Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL): Q3 EPS of $0.64 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $541M (+7.4%) vs. $564M. Shares -7.2%. (PR)
  • VMware (VMW): Q3 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $472M (+32.1%) vs. $463M. Operating margin of 24.4% vs. guidance of 20-22%. Shares +24.6%. (PR, earnings call transcript)
  • Yahoo (YHOO) Q3 EPS of $0.09 in-line. Revenue of $1.32B (+3.3%) vs. $1.37B. Shares +5.2%. [PR]

Today's Markets
  • Asia markets closed broadly down. Nikkei -6.8% to 8,675. Hang Seng -5.1% to 14,267. Shanghai -3.2% to 1,896. BSE -4.8% to 10,170.
  • In Europe: London -2.8%. Paris -2.8%. Frankfurt -2.9%.
  • U.S. futures: Dow -1.4%. S&P -1.7%. Nasdaq -0.8%. Crude -4.7% to $70.89. Gold -1.4% to $757.20.
Snuffysmith
Mortgage applications dropped 16.6% last week

  • Market Watch from Dow Jones
  • 10/22/2008 06:06 AM
Fed Prepared to Prop Up Money-Market Funds

  • Washington Post
  • 10/22/2008 05:52 AM
"Under water" mortgages are growing threat to U.S.

  • Reuters
  • 10/21/2008 08:10 PM
California Home Sales Revive, But Not Without Intense Pain

  • WSJ ($)
  • 10/22/2008 06:27 AM
Some Cut Back on Prescription Drugs in Sour Economy

  • NY Times
  • 10/22/2008 05:34 AM
5% of UA freshmen obtained payday loan

  • Houston Chronicle
  • 10/22/2008 08:38 AM
Worst joblessness in nation staggers R.I.

  • Boston Globe
  • 10/22/2008 06:22 AM
Snuffysmith
CDO Cuts Show $1 Trillion Corporate-Debt Bets Toxic

  • Bloomberg
  • 10/22/2008 05:30 AM
DOJ said to be probing whether Lehman misled analysts

  • Financial Week
  • 10/22/2008 08:47 AM
Hedge Funds Worldwide Post Record Losses in September

  • Bloomberg
  • 10/22/2008 05:56 AM
Market downturn shatters faith in stocks

  • LA Times
  • 10/22/2008 05:23 AM
Snuffysmith
Argentine Default Looms as Seizure of Private Pensions Roils Bonds, Stocks Argentine stocks had their biggest two-day drop since 1990 and dollar bond yields topped 30 percent as a planned takeover of pension funds heightened concern the government is headed for its second default this decade.

New Zealand Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate a Record 100 Basis Points to 6.5% New Zealand's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a record 1 percentage point to 6.5 percent and foreshadowed further reductions to limit damage from the worldwide financial crisis and a slump in the global economy.

Hungary Increases Key Rate to 11.5% in Emergency Measure to Defend Forint Hungary raised its benchmark interest rate by 3 percentage points, the biggest increase in five years, signaling that its currency's defense was the biggest priority even at the expense of economic growth.

Federal Reserve to Raise Interest Rate It Pays on Banks' Reserve Balances The Federal Reserve will raise the interest rate it pays banks for the excess cash they keep on deposit so it can keep pumping funds into the financial system without affecting the central bank's monetary policy.

King Says Bank of England Will Act `Promptly' as Recession Seems Likely Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said Britain's worst banking crisis since World War I is likely to push the economy into a recession, requiring policy makers to act ``promptly'' to prevent inflation from slowing too much.

New Home Sales in U.S. Will Decline by 12% Next Year, Mortgage Bankers Say U.S. new-home sales will fall 12 percent next year as housing starts drop by a record, Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said.

South Korean Economy Probably Slowed, Stoking Concern of Looming Recession South Korea's economy probably grew at the weakest pace in four years last quarter, stoking concern a recession is looming as consumers cut spending and the global downturn erodes export demand.

World Leaders Differ on Financial Crisis's Cure as November Summit Planned World leaders, facing financial markets in turmoil and the possibility of global recession, will discuss ways to fix the crisis at a summit meeting in Washington next month.

Paulson Plans to Buy Mortgages, Use `Leverage' to Aid Struggling Borrowers Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson aims to intensify efforts to stem record mortgage foreclosures, using part of the government's $700 billion financial-rescue fund to purchase home loans.

Barney Frank Wields Bailout Clout to Restrain Private Equity, Hedge Funds U.S. Representative Barney Frank is walking through Statuary Hall in the Capitol, a portrait of rumples and wrinkles. His left shirttail hangs out over his belt. Reporters and photographers are hounding him. Cameras are whirring. Questions are being shouted.

Bank of England Voted Unanimously for Emergency Rate Cut: Table of the Day The following table details the changes in the Bank of England's benchmark interest rate.

Snuffysmith
Federal Reserve to Raise Interest Rate It Pays on Banks' Reserve Balances The Federal Reserve will raise the interest rate it pays banks for the excess cash they keep on deposit so it can keep pumping funds into the financial system without affecting the central bank's monetary policy.

Fed Will Provide $540 Billion to Help Money-Market Funds Meet Redemptions The Federal Reserve will provide up to $540 billion in loans to help relieve pressure on money-market mutual funds beset by redemptions.

Bernanke Backs Consideration of Second Stimulus Package on `Weak' Outlook Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke endorsed additional fiscal stimulus, saying the credit crunch is ``hitting home'' as Americans find it harder to get loans, threatening a prolonged economic slump.

Snuffysmith

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
by SA Editor Eli Hoffmann



Earnings: Thursday Before Open

Earnings: Wednesday After Close
  • Alliance Data Systems (ADS): Q3 EPS of $0.91 misses by $0.25. Revenue of $511M (+3.9%) vs. $524M. Shares +6%. (PR)
  • Allstate (ALL): Q3 EPS of -$0.35 vs. $0.72 consensus. Revenue of $7.32B (-18.6%) vs. $6.32B. "We expect volatile financial markets and tough economic conditions to persist for some time." Shares +3.1%. (PR)
  • Amazon.com (AMZN): Q3 EPS of $0.27 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $4.26B (+30.7%) in-line. Sees Q4 revenue of $6-7B vs. $7.05B. Kindle titles now account for more than 10% of unit sales for books that are available in both digital and print formats. Shares -14%. (PR)
  • Amerigroup (AGP): Q3 EPS of $0.74 beats by $0.23. Revenue of $1.12B (+8.8%) in-line. Shares +4.7%. (PR)
  • Amgen (AMGN): Q3 EPS of $1.23 beats by $0.15. Revenue of $3.88B (+7.3%) vs. $3.7B. Shares +4.4%. (PR)
  • Anadigics (ANAD): Q3 EPS of $0.00 in-line. Revenue of $58.1M (-27.9%) vs $62.8M. Sees Q4 EPS of -$0.12 to -$0.14 vs. $0.02. Shares -17.8%. (PR)
  • Baidu.com (BIDU): Q3 EPS of $1.47 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $135M (+104.2%) in-line. Shares -3%. (PR)
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): Q3 EPS of $0.59 in-line. Revenue of $340M (+18.9%) in-line. Announces a $100M share repurchase program. Shares +2.2%. (PR)
  • Cirrus Logic (CRUS): FQ2 EPS of $0.15 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $53.3M (+13.4%) vs. $52M. Shares +15.5%. (PR)
  • Cohen & Steers (CNS): Q3 EPS of $0.20 misses by $0.05. (PR)
  • F5 Networks (FFIV): FQ4 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $171M (+3.4%) in-line. Shares +7.7%. (PR)
  • Intersil (ISIL): Q3 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $219M (+10.3%) in-line. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.22-0.26 vs. $0.41. Shares +9.9%. (PR)
  • Lam Research (LRCX): FQ1 EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $440M (-35.6%) in-line. Shares -3.4%. (PR)
  • Noble (NE): Q3 EPS of $1.47 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $862M (+8.9%) vs. $871M. Shares +3.1%. (PR)
  • Plantronics (PLT): FQ2 EPS of $0.41 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $217M (+4.2%) in-line. Sees FQ3 EPS of $0.25-0.33 vs. $0.46. Shares -8.1%. (PR)
  • Pulte Homes (PHM): Q3 EPS of -$1.11 misses by $0.63. Revenue of $1.56B (-36.7%) vs. $1.53B. Impairments and land-related charges of $267M. Backlog = 5,885 homes. Shares -4.5%. (PR)
  • Robert Half International (RHI): Q3 EPS of $0.43 in-line. Revenue of $1.16B (-1.6%) in-line. "Our third-quarter results clearly were impacted by the turmoil in the global financial markets... Clients became increasingly cautious with their hiring actions as the quarter progressed." (PR)
  • Ryland Group (RYL): Q3 EPS of -$1.15 misses by $0.27. Revenue of $544M (-26.2%) vs. $512M. New orders of 1,284 units is down 31.6% Y/Y. (PR)
  • Seagate Technology (STX): FQ1 EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $3.03B (-7.7%) vs. $3.16B. Shares -4.7%. (PR)
  • SLM Corp. (SLM): Q3 EPS of $0.19 vs. consensus of $0.36. SLM increased its loan-loss provisions amid an increase in private-loan delinquencies. (PR)
  • Smurfit-Stone Container (SSCC): Q3 EPS of -$0.08 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $1.88B (-0.3%) in-line. Shares +36.8% after dropping 24% in regular hours. (PR)
  • Teradyne (TER): Q3 EPS of $0.09 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $297M (-0.7%) in-line. Sees Q4 EPS of -$0.18 to -$0.07 vs. $0.06 and revenue of $190-220M vs $272M. (PR)
  • Terex (TEX): Q3 EPS of $1.08 misses by $0.25. Revenue of $2.51B (+14.5%) vs. $2.43B. Shares -4.3%. (PR)

Today's Markets
  • Asia markets were sharply lower Thursday. Nikkei -2.46% to 8,461. Hang Seng -3.55% to 13,760. Shanghai -1.07% to 1,876. BSE Sensex -3.92% to 9,772.
  • Europe is trading down at midday. London -1.74%. Paris -3.21%. Frankfurt -3.69%.
  • After spending most of the night in positive territory, U.S. futures are now near their lows. Dow -0.48% to 8516. S&P -0.72% to 896.25. Nasdaq -0.9%.
  • Crude +1.68% to $67.87. Gold -4% to $705.80.

Thursday's Economic Calendar
Snuffysmith
US Market

ETF

Economy

Snuffysmith
Bernanke May Rely on Fresh Tactics to Aid Economy as Fed Rate Heads to 1% Federal Reserve officials are likely to bring interest rates down so aggressively over the next few months that they will have to search for fresh tactics to continue easing credit.

China Pressed to Join Credit-Crisis Fight as Asian, European Leaders Meet China, the world's largest holder of foreign currency, will be pressed to get more involved in combating the global financial crisis at today's biennial summit of Asian and European leaders.

Greenspan Says He `Found a Flaw' in Free-Market Ideology That Guided Him Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a ``once-in-a-century credit tsunami'' has engulfed financial markets and conceded his free-market ideology shunning regulation was flawed.

South Korea's Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in Four Years as Exports Flag South Korea's economy grew at the slowest pace in four years last quarter, sparking concern a recession is looming as consumers rein in spending and the global slowdown damps export demand.

Treasury Plan Will `Waste' Money Unless Foreclosures Stemmed, Senators Say U.S. lawmakers called on the Bush administration to step up aid to struggling homeowners, saying the Treasury's plans to buy stakes in banks won't fix the housing collapse that underlies the financial crisis.

Foreclosure Filings Rose 71% in Third-Quarter in U.S. as Home Prices Fell U.S. foreclosure filings increased 71 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier to the highest on record as home prices fell and stricter mortgage standards made it harder for homeowners to sell or refinance, RealtyTrac said.

Brazil to Pump $50 Billion Into Currency Market to Stem 28% Slide in Real Brazil's central bank will pump the equivalent of $50 billion into currency markets, its boldest move yet to stem a two-month, 28 percent tumble in the real that has saddled companies with losses and stoked inflation.

Australia's Economy to Slow Through to Mid-2009, Access Economics Predicts Australia's 17-year economic expansion will continue to slow in 2009 as a slump in consumer spending worsens amid the threat of a global recession, research company Access Economics said.

Sarkozy Summons De Gaulle's Statist Spirit Amid Crisis, Challenging U.S. Since the era of Charles de Gaulle, France has rebelled against the American-style capitalism that put a ``Made in U.S.A.'' stamp on the world economy.

Bush Administration Sees `Tough' GDP Numbers, `Rocky Road' on Unemployment The White House expects ``tough'' GDP numbers for the final two quarters of this year, spokeswoman Dana Perino said.

Snuffysmith
Bear Stearns Portfolio Value Declines by $2.7 Billion, or 9.2%, Fed Says The Federal Reserve reduced the estimated value of the Bear Stearns Cos. assets it took on in June by $2.7 billion, or 9.2 percent, as the worsening credit crisis forced more markdowns on mortgage-backed debt.

Greenspan Says He `Found a Flaw' in Free-Market Ideology That Guided Him Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a ``once-in-a-century credit tsunami'' has engulfed financial markets and conceded his free-market ideology shunning regulation was flawed.

Bernanke May Seek New Ways to Ease Credit as Federal Funds Rate Nears 1% Federal Reserve officials are likely to bring interest rates down so aggressively over the next few months that they will have to search for fresh tactics to continue easing credit.

Snuffysmith

The Economy